Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC — Tips & Analysis

Burgos -0.75: Ceuta are the worst team in the division and they are travelling in a mess. They are bottom on 0 points from 4 games with a goal difference of minus 11, beaten 0-2, 0-3, 0-2 and 1-5. They made this trip with only 19 available players after another round of injuries. Ceuta score under a goal a game, let in almost 2, and have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16. Burgos are the opposite kind of side. They have won 7, tied 6 and lost only 2 of their last 15, and they let in under a goal a game. What they do not do is score freely. Burgos get just over a goal a game and their matches average under 2 goals in total. El Plantio has been a grind all season, with four ties in seven home games, and the only two meetings with Ceuta finished 1-1 and 0-1. So the read is a 1-0 Burgos win, most likely a scrappy goal in a second half they slowly take over. Be clear about the catch. Burgos have won by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 15 games, so the wider the winning margin the better this looks. Against a side with no points, no confidence and barely a squad, we think they have picked the right night to be ruthless.