AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II — Tips & Analysis

Willem II +2.5: AZ are flying, but they win these games without burying anyone. They have won by three or more in only 5 of their last 13, and 5 of those 13 ended level. That is the heart of this pick. AZ are the better side by a distance, unbeaten at 8W-5D-0L, top of the league on 15 points from 5 games and winners of their last five. They also leave the back door open at home, where recent games have finished 5-2, 3-3 and 2-2. Willem II have had a rough start to life back in the top flight. They have let in 3, 2, 4 and 4 in four games, sit 16th, and are missing five players including their keeper T. Didillon Hodl. But they keep scoring. Willem II have found the net in three of their four top flight games and score more than a goal a game. That matters more here than the goals they give up. A 3-1 to AZ is the likeliest end. That is a comfortable home win with a goal at the other end, and exactly the result this pick is built for. The risk is real. Willem II lost 1-4 on their only top flight trip so far, and a stand in keeper against an attack this good could get ugly. We still back the visitors to stay within range.