Chelsea vs Leeds — Tips & Analysis

Leeds +1: Leeds do not get beaten by big margins, and that is the case here. They have lost by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 17 games, and they let in just over a goal a game across that run. They also won 2-0 at Nottingham Forest in the last round, so they want this competition. Chelsea are the better side and have won 7 of the last 11 meetings, but they are not a team that wins big. They have won by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 14 games. Tonight they are expected to change their line up heavily, with starts talked about for Penders, Chavarria, Barco and Colwill. Henderson is out with a wrist injury. Chelsea also have three days rest after losing 1-2 at Arsenal. Leeds have four after a 1-1 tie at Brighton. Our read is a 2-1 Chelsea win, so Leeds have to stay within a goal, and staying close is what this Leeds team does best. Two risks stand out. Both managers will make a lot of changes, so the shape of either side is guesswork tonight. This is also a knockout tie, so a Leeds team chasing late could get caught on the break. We still think Leeds keep this close.