Tips — Thursday, 27 August 2026

💬 Ararat-Armenia are very hard to beat in Yerevan, and that is the whole case for backing them tonight. They have won eight of their ten home games this season, letting in under a goal a game there and scoring almost 2. Across their last 18 games they have won 11 and lost only 4, and they have lost by 2 or more just twice. Universitatea Craiova are a solid side, but they are a careful one on the road. They have tied five of their eight away games and they score less than a goal a game away from home. The first leg in Craiova finished 1-1, so the tie is level and one moment decides who goes through. Expect Craiova to sit in, keep the game slow, and try to take it late. That points to a tight, nervy night where Ararat-Armenia keep pushing and eventually find a way through. Our read is 1-0 to the home side. There are two honest worries. Craiova have lost just 3 of their last 18 games, so they are more than capable of taking something here. Ararat-Armenia have Conference League football locked up whatever happens, and this is not their regular ground in the city. We still trust them not to lose this one at home.

💬 Plzen have to chase this game from the first minute, and that is what makes goals likely. They lost the first leg 3-0 in Belgrade, so sitting deep and keeping it tight is no use to them. Their defence is in no shape for that job either. Recent games include a 5-5 at Teplice, a 3-2 with Zlin, a 1-3 loss to Slovan Liberec and that 0-3 in Serbia. Plzen's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 8 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Crvena Zvezda are built to punish an open game. They score more than 2 goals a game, they have won 7 of their last 13, and 9 of those 13 games had 3 or more goals. They rested key players in a 4-0 win four days ago, so Arnautović, Ivanić and Bukari arrive fresh. Plzen have also changed coach, with Radoslav Kováč in charge for the first time. New managers bring energy and mistakes in equal measure. The likely finish is Plzen 1, Crvena Zvezda 2. We want a fourth goal on top of that, and Plzen have been giving up goals in bunches. The risk is a Zvezda side happy to sit deep and protect their big lead. If they do that, this can die out at 1-0 or 0-1. We still want the goals.

💬 Beşiktaş have no reason to chase this game, and that shapes the whole night. They beat Kauno Žalgiris 3-0 in Istanbul last week, so they arrive with a big lead and can control the pace. Beşiktaş let in under a goal a game and have kept a clean sheet in all five of their European games this season. Their own games are quiet as well. They have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 6 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Kauno Žalgiris are stubborn at their own ground. They have won 4, tied 2 and lost 3 in nine home games, and they let in under a goal a game there. Across the season they score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Beşiktaş also come in on four days rest against a home side that has had seven. Tired legs and a big lead do not make for an open game. A 1-1 looks the most likely finish, with Žalgiris getting on the board and the visitors doing enough. The danger is a repeat of last week, when this same Beşiktaş side put 3 past them. An early goal would change the shape of this fast. Even so, we want the quiet game here.

💬 Lillestrom do not beat teams by much, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 17 games, and they have lost by 2 or more just as often. Their form is poor as well. Three league defeats in a row came before two ties, and they score just over a goal a game and let in the same. At home they are more open, scoring almost 2 goals a game and letting in more than one, with no ties in eight home games. Egnatia already have proof they can live with this. They held Lillestrom to 0-0 in Albania in the first leg, and they have won 7 and tied 5 of their last 19 games. They score almost 2 goals a game. That 0-0 also means both sides have to go and win this one, which points to an open, stretched night rather than a quiet one. A 2-1 Lillestrom win is the most likely finish, and that keeps things close enough for our side. The warning is real. Egnatia are a weaker team on the road, with 2 wins, 3 ties and 5 defeats away, and they let in almost 2 goals a game there. They are also without suspended left back Edison Ndreca. We still expect them to stay within a goal.

💬 Omonia have not lost at home all season, and that is the reason we are with them. They have won 7 and tied 1 in eight home games at the GSP Stadium, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in well under one. They have been strong all round. Omonia have won 11 and lost only 2 of their last 16 games. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of those 16, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. St. Truiden are a different team away from their own ground. Their road record is 1 win, 2 ties and 2 defeats, and they let in almost 2 goals a game on it. They have also been riding their luck at the back, giving up more good chances than they have made. Omonia trail by a goal after losing 1-0 in the first leg, so they will come out fast and push from the first whistle. A 2-0 home win is the most likely finish, and that is plenty for our side. The catch is that chasing the game leaves gaps. Ryan Merlen has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last four games and can punish a stretched home defence. We still think Omonia have too much here.

💬 Big wins are rare on both sides of this one, and that is the case for Mjallby. Salzburg have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 13 games. Mjallby have lost by 2 or more just once in their last 16. Salzburg also have a lead to protect after winning the first leg 1-0 in Sweden, so a heavy night is not needed. Their home scoring is modest at more than a goal a game across five home games, where they have won 3, tied 1 and lost 1. Their team news makes a big win harder still. Diakite and Diabate are out with hamstring problems, Kratzig and Chase with thigh injuries, and Moser, Omoregie and Aguilar are longer term absences. Mjallby travel close to fully fit, with only Stavitski missing. Mjallby score more than a goal a game and let in the same. They are not playing well, but they keep games in one piece and rarely get taken apart. A 2-1 Salzburg win is the likely finish, and that suits our side. The worry is form. Mjallby have lost four of their last five and have one win in seven away games, so a flat start could turn into a long night. We still expect them to stay close.

💬 Benfica were far too good in the first leg, and nothing here changes that. They won it 3-1 with 71% of the ball and 13 shots on goal to one. They are on a strong run too. Benfica have won 10 and lost only 1 of their last 17 games. They score almost 3 goals a game and have won by 2 or more in 8 of those 17. They have not lost by 2 or more once. Aarhus arrive with problems. Tingager, Poulsen and Yakob are all out, so the middle of the pitch has to be rebuilt. They also played a 2-2 with Odense four days ago, and Benfica have had a full week off. Most of all, Aarhus have to chase two goals, and chasing is what Benfica feed on. Their forwards live on the space a team leaves when it pushes up. Expect Aarhus to score and still lose, with a 3-1 Benfica win the likely finish. The care point is the home ground. Aarhus have won 3, tied 4 and lost 1 in eight home games, and they score almost 2 goals a game there. An early goal would make this awkward. We are still with Benfica to win this well.

💬 Thun leak goals, and this is a night with nothing left to protect. They let in almost 3 goals a game at their own ground, and 11 of their last 16 games have finished with 3 or more goals. Their games average just over 4 goals in total. Thun have lost 10 of those 16, so keeping a clean sheet is not something they do. The tie is already gone after the 7-0 loss in Poznan, and that frees them to have a go in front of their own crowd. Lech arrive on the back of five straight wins and score more than 2 goals a game. They are unbeaten on the road this season at 6W-1D-0L, and 12 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. Even a changed Lech team carries far too much quality for this defense. Our read is a 1-2 to Lech, a lively game rather than a tight one. The risk here is real and worth saying plainly. With the tie decided, Lech are likely to rest players, and they are already missing Leo Bengtsson and Ali Gholizadeh out wide. A flat, slow night where neither team chases anything is the one thing that beats this. We still want the busier game.

💬 Osasuna are struggling badly away from home. They have not won any of their last six road games at 0W-1D-5L, and they score less than a goal a game on their travels. They also arrive on a run of one tie and four straight losses. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. This is a team that turns up to stay in matches, not to take them. Celta are hardly flying either, but they score just over a goal a game and have Aspas and Jutgla to lean on at Balaidos. Borja Iglesias is out with a muscle problem, so the goals have to come from those two. Osasuna are missing Valentin Rosier and have had only three days of rest to Celta's five, which tells late in a tight game. These teams know each other well. Their last twenty meetings have averaged just over 2 goals, and both opened this season with 0-0 ties, so nobody should expect a shootout. One moment decides it, and a 1-0 to Celta looks right. The warning is simple. Osasuna have lost by exactly one goal in seven of their last fifteen games, so they hang around, and a late equaliser is a real threat. We still think Celta have just enough.

💬 These two do not play quiet games. Chelsea have won all four meetings with Luton, and those games have averaged just over 4 goals. Chelsea make changes three days after winning at Fulham, with Moises Caicedo and Marco Palestra unavailable and Mike Penders in line for a cup start in goal. A patched-up back line gives something up, and Chelsea have let in almost 2 goals a game across their last 14. Luton are travelling well. They have won 11 of their last 16, they score more than 2 goals a game, and they have found the net in every match this season. Thirteen of those 16 games finished with 3 or more goals, and they are unbeaten on the road at 6W-2D-0L. Jack Wilshere's team push men forward as a matter of habit, which suits us. That record has come against League One teams, so it does not travel straight to Stamford Bridge, but Chelsea's forwards are a level above anything Luton have faced. A 3-1 to Chelsea is the read, and that is an open game rather than a tight one. The honest worry is the size of the rotation. Nobody knows Chelsea's team yet, and a heavily changed side can make this a scrappy 1-0 or 2-1 with the tempo gone. We are happy to back goals here.

💬 Ferencvaros do not lose at home. They have gone nine games unbeaten at the Groupama Arena at 6W-3D-0L, letting in less than a goal a game there. Add a 1-0 lead from the first leg in Trabzon, won by a Zachariassen header, and they have exactly the night they want. Fradi have won 11 of their last 17 and let in less than a goal a game overall. They also live in tight matches. They have won by exactly one goal in seven of their last seventeen and tied four more. Trabzonspor have to come and get it, and that is not their strength. They score just over a goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals. They have also won by 2 or more goals only once in their last 16. They are without Ernest Muci, Arseniy Batagov and Tim Jabol-Folcarelli, and they did not score at home in the first leg. They also have four days of rest to Ferencvaros's seven. A 1-0 to the hosts is the read, soaking up pressure and hitting on the break. The one unknown is Mohamed Salah, who is set for his first start and can change a game on his own. A red card or an early goal against would force Fradi out of their shape too. We are still with the home side to hold on.

💬 Barcelona should win this comfortably, and their comfortable wins are usually controlled rather than wild. Athletic Club arrive 19th in the table with no points on the board. They have won one of five away trips, they score just over a goal a game, and their last five results read four losses and a tie. Barcelona have won the last five meetings between these two without letting in a single goal. The away side's route to goals looks blocked before kick off. Barcelona score more than 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game. Their own games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and their 20 most recent meetings with Athletic have averaged 3 goals. Barcelona are without de Jong and Gavi, the two who set their tempo, so expect patient control rather than a flood. The shape of the night looks familiar. Barcelona go ahead inside the opening 30 minutes, add a second before the hour, then play at their own speed. Our read is 3-0, and that keeps the goal count where we want it. There is a real danger here. Athletic are missing four of their defenders, including Vivian and Berchiche, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Barcelona have won 5-0 and 4-0 in this run. We still expect a managed evening.

💬 AFC Wimbledon barely score, and a game where one team cannot score rarely turns busy. Wimbledon have scored less than a goal a game this season, and even less than that on their away trips. They have won one of their last 15 games and tied four, and their last five read two losses and three ties. They will sit deep at Craven Cottage and try to keep the game small. Fulham do not blow teams away either. They score exactly one goal a game, and only 5 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Their games average just over 2 goals in total. Fulham are also expected to change most of their side three days after a league defeat. Lecomte comes in for Leno in goal and Tom Cairney is out injured. A rebuilt team needs time to click, and that time is what keeps the score down. We see 2-0. Fulham should press forward, find one goal somewhere in the middle of the match, then add a second when League One legs go late. The worry is a heavy Fulham win. Wimbledon have been beaten by 3 or more four times in 15 games, including 0-4 and 0-3 against Huddersfield. If Fulham score early, tired legs can turn one goal into three. We still expect a slow, low-scoring night.