Chelsea vs Luton — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.25: These two do not play quiet games. Chelsea have won all four meetings with Luton, and those games have averaged just over 4 goals. Chelsea make changes three days after winning at Fulham, with Moises Caicedo and Marco Palestra unavailable and Mike Penders in line for a cup start in goal. A patched-up back line gives something up, and Chelsea have let in almost 2 goals a game across their last 14. Luton are travelling well. They have won 11 of their last 16, they score more than 2 goals a game, and they have found the net in every match this season. Thirteen of those 16 games finished with 3 or more goals, and they are unbeaten on the road at 6W-2D-0L. Jack Wilshere's team push men forward as a matter of habit, which suits us. That record has come against League One teams, so it does not travel straight to Stamford Bridge, but Chelsea's forwards are a level above anything Luton have faced. A 3-1 to Chelsea is the read, and that is an open game rather than a tight one. The honest worry is the size of the rotation. Nobody knows Chelsea's team yet, and a heavily changed side can make this a scrappy 1-0 or 2-1 with the tempo gone. We are happy to back goals here.