Barcelona vs Athletic Club — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Barcelona should win this comfortably, and their comfortable wins are usually controlled rather than wild. Athletic Club arrive 19th in the table with no points on the board. They have won one of five away trips, they score just over a goal a game, and their last five results read four losses and a tie. Barcelona have won the last five meetings between these two without letting in a single goal. The away side's route to goals looks blocked before kick off. Barcelona score more than 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game. Their own games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and their 20 most recent meetings with Athletic have averaged 3 goals. Barcelona are without de Jong and Gavi, the two who set their tempo, so expect patient control rather than a flood. The shape of the night looks familiar. Barcelona go ahead inside the opening 30 minutes, add a second before the hour, then play at their own speed. Our read is 3-0, and that keeps the goal count where we want it. There is a real danger here. Athletic are missing four of their defenders, including Vivian and Berchiche, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Barcelona have won 5-0 and 4-0 in this run. We still expect a managed evening.