FC Thun vs Lech Poznan — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Thun leak goals, and this is a night with nothing left to protect. They let in almost 3 goals a game at their own ground, and 11 of their last 16 games have finished with 3 or more goals. Their games average just over 4 goals in total. Thun have lost 10 of those 16, so keeping a clean sheet is not something they do. The tie is already gone after the 7-0 loss in Poznan, and that frees them to have a go in front of their own crowd. Lech arrive on the back of five straight wins and score more than 2 goals a game. They are unbeaten on the road this season at 6W-1D-0L, and 12 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. Even a changed Lech team carries far too much quality for this defense. Our read is a 1-2 to Lech, a lively game rather than a tight one. The risk here is real and worth saying plainly. With the tie decided, Lech are likely to rest players, and they are already missing Leo Bengtsson and Ali Gholizadeh out wide. A flat, slow night where neither team chases anything is the one thing that beats this. We still want the busier game.