Tips — Friday, 14 August 2026

💬 Kashiwa have won 4 of their last 5, but their record on the road is a different story. On the road they have won 3, tied 1 and lost 5, and they score just over a goal a game away. Tokyo Verdy have also had the better of this meeting lately, winning the last two on their own ground, 1-0 in May and 2-1 in February. Verdy are a modest side going forward, scoring a goal a game across their last 20. They have won 6, tied 6 and lost 8 in that run, and they have not won by 2 or more once. That is the profile of a team that keeps games close and takes points off better sides. Kashiwa are the more dangerous team, with 8 wins in their last 19 and a 2-1 win over Mito Hollyhock to open the season. The last 10 meetings have split evenly, 4 wins each and 2 ties. A 1-1 is the honest read here, and that score lands this pick. The worry is Verdy's home defence. They have let in more than a goal a game at Ajinomoto Stadium, including a 0-6 to Yokohama F. Marinos and a 2-4 to Gamba Osaka. Kashiwa have won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 19, so a heavy loss is not far fetched. We still want Verdy to stay with them.

💬 Both these teams play in busy games, and that is the whole case here. Marseille's matches averaged 3 goals a game last season, and 11 of their last 17 had 3 or more. Atletico were much the same, with just over 3 goals a game and 3 or more in 10 of their last 17. At home, Marseille were 5 wins, 3 ties and 1 loss, scoring just over 2 goals a game. Atletico travelled badly, letting in 2 goals a game on the road and ending the season with a 1-5 loss at Villarreal. They were giving up chances too, not just unlucky in front of goal. This is the last pre season game for both clubs before their leagues start, played at the Velodrome. Games like that tend to be open, with tired legs, new faces and back lines that are still finding each other. Their one previous meeting produced 3 goals. A 2-1 to Marseille is the likely shape, and three goals puts us on the right side. The honest risk is the kind of game it is. Both managers may empty the bench at the break, and both start their league seasons within days. That can mean protected starters and a careful, quiet 90 minutes. We will take that chance, because everything both clubs have done lately points to goals.

💬 Parma have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. That is the heart of this pick. They score under a goal a game, and their matches average almost 2 goals in total. Parma also come in cold, with no competitive game since May, and they are set to make heavy changes. Pellegrino has gone, Corvi starts in goal, and Toure or Elphege lead the line. Catania are built to keep games tight. They tied 10 of their last 20 and lost by 2 or more only 3 times in that run. They score under a goal a game on their travels, across 11 away trips. What they do is defend and keep the score down. Catania are further along too, with a game 6 days ago behind them. The last 8 meetings between these clubs have produced 4 ties and only 1 Parma win. A 1-0 to Parma is the likely finish, and a one goal loss is what this pick wants. The risk is that Parma name a stronger side than the reported one. Their team is not confirmed, and a full strength Serie A side would widen the gap. Catania's record was also made in Serie C, so the real difference in quality is bigger than their numbers look. Even so, Parma's blunt attack and Catania's habit of tying games keep us with the away side.

💬 Bochum have owned this game lately. They have won four of the last five meetings, including a 4-1 and a 2-0 in the last two. There is very little between these two sides, whatever the early table says. Braunschweig sit top after a 6-1 win at Magdeburg, but their last 13 games read 4 wins, 3 ties and 6 losses. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. They also go into this one missing four players, including an attacker. Bochum score more than a goal a game and are hard to beat by much. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13. They lost their opening game to Hertha by a single goal, but they made the better chances that day. Both sides let in a shade more than they score, and neither one controls a game for long. A 1-1 tie looks like the most likely score here, and that suits a side getting a head start. The worry is the trip. Bochum have won only one of their last six away games and let in almost 2 goals a game on the road. Braunschweig have lost once in five at home, and if that 6-1 win was the real Braunschweig, this gets away from us. We still want Bochum with the head start.

💬 This game brings goals. The last 18 meetings between these clubs averaged just over 3 goals, and each of the last five produced at least three. Kiel are busy at both ends. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They also had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 13 games. At Darmstadt on opening weekend they scored twice and let in twice. St. Pauli's numbers look poor at first glance. They score under a goal a game, but that record was built in the Bundesliga against Bayern, Leipzig and Freiburg. In their first game in this division they had 58% of the ball and tied 1-1 with Fürth, making more chances than the score showed. Neither back line here looks reliable. St. Pauli have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14 games, so they hand out chances. A 2-1 win for Kiel looks the most likely score, and that gets us home. The catch is the St. Pauli attack. They have not scored more than once in any of their last ten games. If they go quiet again, this can end 1-0 or 2-0 to Kiel. We still want the open, busy game here.

💬 This one should be short of goals, and Cagliari are the main reason why. They score a goal a game, and at the Unipol Domus that only rises to just over one. This is also their first competitive game since May, and they will change the team for a Round of 64 tie. Sides that rusty rarely turn a cup tie into a high scoring game. Arezzo defend well and travel well. They let in under a goal a game on the road and beat Union Brescia 2-0 in the last round. Only 6 of Arezzo's last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. They come in on 5 days rest and should be organised from the first whistle. There is no history between these clubs to lean on, but the shape of the game is clear enough. Cagliari are the better team and should get through, most likely by 2-0. That is a quiet night with the goals kept low, which is what we want. The risk is that the gap in level shows early. Arezzo were beaten 2-5 by Vicenza the moment they stepped up last season. Cagliari have had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 16 games, so they are not always this quiet. One early goal can open a tie like this up. We still expect a slow, low scoring night here.

💬 Vasteras are the reason to expect goals here. Nine of their last 16 games had 3 or more, and their games average just over 3 goals in total. That is easily the busier of the two teams. Elfsborg have been the tighter side, letting in just over a goal a game, but that back line has been riding its luck. Over their last four games they gave up far more good chances than the scorelines showed. Vasteras are looser again on their travels. They let in more than 2 a game away from home and score just over one. They also arrive missing three first team players in M. Diallo, F. Nsabiyumva and J. Ring, on four days off against six for Elfsborg. That points to Elfsborg taking control and Vasteras still finding a goal, which is why 2-1 to the home side looks the most likely score. Three goals gets this home. The warning sits in the head to head. The last three meetings were tight, with just 2 goals a game between them, and Elfsborg won two of the three. Elfsborg are the quieter team for goals too, with only 7 of their last 16 games reaching 3. If they lead early and slow the game down, this can die out. We still think Vasteras carry enough to keep it moving.

💬 Telstar are the engine of this game. Eleven of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 3 goals in total. At BUKO Stadion they have won four of six and scored more than 2 a game there. They also won at NEC on the opening weekend, so the front foot habit has carried into the new season. Sparta are the problem side. They have gone seven away games without a win, letting in almost 3 a game on those trips and scoring under one. They have lost 8 of their last 14 overall. They arrive missing midfielders Joshua Kitolano and Shunsuke Mito, which leaves Steijn very little room to change things. Telstar beat this same opponent 4-1 at BUKO in April. A home side that attacks against an away side that leaks usually means goals. A 3-0 Telstar win is the most likely score, and that lands on the right side of this one. The catch is the head to head record. The last seven meetings averaged only 2 goals a game, and Sparta held Feyenoord to 0-1 on the opening day. They can sit deep and make a game ugly when they choose to, and a 1-0 or 2-0 would kill this. We still expect Telstar to break them open.

💬 Monaco are the better side here and they are further along. They beat Liverpool 3-2 and Getafe 1-0 in pre-season, and they are nine days from their opening league game with Balogun, Pogba and Dier in the squad. A team that close to a competitive start plays at a proper tempo. Coventry are no soft touch. They have won 11 of their last 18 and let in under a goal a game. They have not lost by 2 or more in that whole run. But this is their last run out before a Premier League opener at Arsenal on 21 August. A number of players are due about an hour, so the aim is fitness and minutes rather than a result. Monaco score more than 2 goals a game, and 12 of their last 15 games had 3 or more. They carry the greater threat in the final third. Coventry's shape should keep them in it for long spells and they will have moments. A 1-2 Monaco win is the picture we expect, and that is exactly what this pick wants. The clear risk is that it is a friendly. Both teams can change the whole side at half time, and neither has played a competitive game since May, so the tempo is a guess. We are still with the stronger squad.

💬 Monza have the better players and they should show it. Juric is expected to start Colpani, Cutrone and Varela together in attack, and Avellino have nothing to match that. Monza have won 8 of their last 16, they score almost 2 goals a game, and they won by 2 or more in 6 of those 16. At their own ground last season they took 5 wins from 8 and let in under a goal a game. Avellino are the opposite sort of team. They managed only two wins from eight on the road last season and scored under a goal a game doing it. They have also lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 16, so the margin can run away from them. Avellino are without Marco Sala. Monza will miss captain Matteo Pessina, who hurt his knee in training. A controlled 2-0 home win is the shape we expect, with Monza ahead early and Avellino short of the quality to answer. The care point is that this is the first competitive game of the season for both sides, after 77 and 94 days without one. Rust and heavy rotation are real in a Round of 64 tie, and Avellino keep games tight when they are organised. We are still with Monza to handle this one.

💬 Rusty defences and brand new attacking shapes are what make midsummer games loose. Atalanta have not played in 84 days and Maurizio Sarri takes charge at their own ground for the first time, with a 28 man squad to work through. His new side let in more than a goal a game last season, and 9 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. Athletic Club are the bigger worry at the back. They won only one of seven away games last season and let in more than 2 a game on those trips. Across the whole run they let in almost 2 a game. These two have met once and it finished 3-2 to Athletic, a five goal game. This is the 27th Trofeo Bortolotti, in front of a home crowd Atalanta will want to entertain. Neither coach has much reason to lock the game down. A 2-1 Atalanta win looks the most likely score, and that already puts this on the right side. The honest catch is Athletic's scoring. They managed only 1 goal a game across 13 games, so the away goals may not arrive. Friendlies also bring wholesale changes at half time, which can flatten the tempo. We want the busier game here.

💬 Benevento's numbers look strong until you see where they were built. Their whole recent run came in Serie C, the level below the one they have just been promoted into. Fiorentina are a Serie A side and have been very hard to play against at home. They went unbeaten at the Franchi last season and let in under a goal a game there. Fabio Grosso's pre season points the same way, with a 2-2 tie against Real Madrid and a 1-0 win over Watford. Fiorentina have also handled this opponent before, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. Benevento are no soft touch. They have won 11 of their last 17 and let in under a goal a game. So this should be a controlled win rather than a heavy one. A 2-0 is the shape we expect, one goal either side of the break and the tie seen out without much alarm. The risk here is real and worth saying. Fiorentina score just over a goal a game and won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 13. Benevento have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 17. They also played a competitive game five days ago, and Fiorentina have not played since May. The gap in quality is still big enough, and we want Fiorentina to win by two.