Tips — Thursday, 13 August 2026

💬 Craiova do not win by big margins, and this pick is built on that. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18 games. Their form has slipped as well, with a 0-1 home loss to Arges Pitesti on 9 August and a 1-5 beating at Dinamo Bucuresti. They are still a solid home side. They score more than a goal a game, let in less than one, and they have won 6 of 9 at the Ion Oblemenco. Solid is not the same as ruthless, and this tie is level at 1-1 from Finland. KuPS travel well. They have won 7 of 10 on the road this season and let in well under a goal a game away from home. Across their last 20 games they have lost by 2 or more just once. That is the number that matters most here. Our read is a 1-0 to Craiova, which keeps this pick safe. We need KuPS to lose by no more than one goal. The risk is the home version of Craiova turning up in full. At the Ion Oblemenco they score more than 2 goals a game, and a tiring KuPS side could get stretched late as the tie opens up. We are still with KuPS to keep this close.

💬 Ferencváros hold the lead and the better squad, and that is a strong mix in a tie like this. They won the first leg 1-0 in Budapest through Márius Corbu's goal, so Górnik are the ones who must take risks. Ferencváros have won 11 and lost only 2 of their last 16 games. They score 2 goals a game and let in less than one. That is the profile of a side who can take the sting out of a night like this, then punish a gap. Górnik are no pushovers at home. They have won 4 of 6 there at 2 goals a game and tied 1-1 with Fenerbahçe on the same pitch. They are without Jarosław Kubicki through injury, which is a blow in a game where they need everything to go right. Our read is a 1-1, which is fine for us, because we are backing Ferencváros not to lose this game. They only need to keep their heads and take one of the chances Górnik leave behind. The warning is that Ferencváros are not solid on the road. They let in more than a goal a game away, and they let in four at Paks and two against Twente in recent weeks. An early home goal would drag them into a real fight. We still trust the Hungarians to come through it.

💬 Salzburg arrive with a thin squad and a habit of tight games, and that is what makes this pick work. Their last three games against proper opposition all finished with two goals or fewer: 1-1 at Wolfsberger, 1-0 against Pafos and 1-0 against Hartberg. They are also patched up. Enrique Aguilar broke a forearm in the first leg and needs surgery. Edmund Baidoo, Soumaila Diabate, Gaoussou Diakite and Damir Redzic all picked up knocks in the same game. Pafos are a different team at home. They have won 4 of 7 there and lost only once, scoring almost 2 goals a game, including a 4-0 win over Hajduk Split in this competition. On the road they have won just 2 of 9. All we want tonight is for Pafos to avoid defeat, and a tie is enough. Our read is a 1-1, which lands this comfortably. Salzburg are 1-0 up and can sit in to protect it. A visiting side in no hurry suits a home team who only need the game to stay level. The caution is that Pafos are missing forward Jaja and creator Domingos Quina, and Sema is suspended. That leaves them short of the players who unlock a packed defence. We are happy to back Pafos to hold their own here.

💬 Both of these teams turn up in busy games almost every week. Vikingur have had 3 or more goals in 15 of their last 20, and their games average more than 3 goals in total. They score more than 2 a game and let in more than a goal, so they are rarely in a quiet 1-0. At their own ground they are unbeaten in 7 games and score almost 3 a game. Thun bring the same pattern from the other side. Their games average almost 4 goals in total, and 12 of their last 17 had 3 or more. They let in more than 2 a game, and their last three league games included a 2-4 loss at Basel and a 0-6 at home to Young Boys. The shape of the night helps as well. Thun won the first game 3-0, so they can sit deep and break, and Vikingur have to pour bodies forward and leave space behind. Our read is a 2-1 to Vikingur, and this leg wants at least one more goal on top of that. The clear danger is a team 3 goals up killing the game stone dead. If Thun keep the ball and see it out, this could finish 1-0 and nowhere near what we want. We still want the busy game here.

💬 Maccabi have to come out and attack, and that is the whole case here. They are 3-0 down from the first game, so sitting in is no use to them at all. Maccabi score more than 2 goals a game and their games are busy, with 14 of their last 18 producing 3 or more. On the road they have been better still, scoring almost 3 a game across 9 away trips. They have also had 7 days off to CSKA's 4, so the legs should be there for a fast start. CSKA are the reason to be careful. Their games average just over 2 goals in total, and only 6 of their last 14 had 3 or more. They have also played out three 0-0 ties in their last eight. They let in less than a goal a game and are happy to sit off and counter. Our honest read is a 1-1, and that is not enough for this leg. It needs a third goal, and a chasing side with nothing to lose is the likeliest way to get one. The risk is plain. If CSKA keep it tidy and Maccabi's urgency stays scrappy, this drifts to a quiet 1-0 or 1-1. We are still on the side of goals, because one team has to force the game.

💬 Rangers are in no state to blow anyone away. Chermiti did his knee in Sunday's 2-1 home loss to Hibernian, and Barron, Godfrey, Cifuentes and Rommens are all missing too. Rangers have scored exactly one goal in each of their last three games, losing 1-2 to Hibernian, losing 1-2 in Poland and tying 1-1 at Dundee United. Their last five read one win, one tie and three losses. Jagiellonia travel well. They have played 5 away games without losing, winning 3 and tying 2, and they let in less than a goal a game on the road. Across their last 14 games they have won 8 and let in 1 a game. Rangers leave the back door open at Ibrox too, letting in almost 2 a game. A team chasing the round is easy to catch on the break. Our read is a 1-1, and this leg only goes wrong if Rangers find the comfortable win that has been beyond them lately. Rangers have managed that in only 5 of their last 17 games. The warning is real. Ibrox on a European night can turn wild, and Rangers' home games in this run all finished with 3 or more goals. Jagiellonia also lost 0-2 at home to Widzew last time out. We still think the Poles keep this close.

💬 Anderlecht's home games have been goal rushes. Their last five at Lotto Park produced 3, 4, 4, 4 and 4 goals, and 11 of their last 15 games in all have had 3 or more. They score more than a goal a game and let in almost 2, so they get into open games rather than closed ones. At their own ground they score more than 2 a game and still let in more than a goal. PAOK now have to change how they play. They lost the first game 1-0 at home, so keeping it tight is no longer any use to them. Their away football is usually careful, with just over a goal at each end, and that shape has to go. Anderlecht should have been out of sight already, because they made far more chances in Greece and won only 1-0. Our read is a 2-1 to Anderlecht, and that is the kind of night this leg wants. The worry is PAOK's own habit. Only 8 of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals in them. Anderlecht could also decide to protect what they have rather than chase a second goal. We think the pattern at Lotto Park wins out and the goals turn up.

💬 The round is over as a contest, and that is the strongest reason to expect a calmer night. Benfica lead 6-1 and have nothing left to chase. Silva is expected to rest Vangelis Pavlidis and give Jhon Duran the centre forward job, so this is not the side that scored six. Benfica are a different team away from Lisbon as well. They score almost 2 goals in each away game against more than 3 at home, and they lost 1-2 at St Gallen in this same competition. Hearts will make it hard. They have won seven of their last eight at Tynecastle and let in under a goal a game there. They beat Dundee United 4-0 at the weekend, their first win of the season, so they arrive with something to build on and no pressure on them. Neither side has many games with 4 or more goals in them. Our read is a 1-2 to Benfica, and that is exactly the kind of night this leg wants. The danger is obvious after a 6-1. Benfica have no fresh injury worries and could name a strong side, and 15 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. Hearts' home record is built on Scottish league nights, and Sturm Graz won 2-0 at Tynecastle. We still want the quieter game.

💬 Egnatia have to attack for ninety minutes, and that is what makes this leg live. They lost the first game 3-1, so they need at least two goals to stay in the round. Their European nights have been wide open already, a 3-3 and a 2-2 with Celje and a 6-1 against Petrocub. Their games average just over 3 goals in total, and they let in more than a goal a game, so they do not shut games down. Shamrock are not a side that kills a game either. Their games average 3 goals in total and 12 of their last 19 had 3 or more. They score almost 2 a game and let in just over a goal. The first game between these two had 4 goals in it. This is played at a neutral ground, so neither side gets a home crowd to lean on. Our read is a 2-1 to Egnatia on the night, and that clears what this leg needs. The obvious risk is Shamrock sitting on their two goal lead. They lost 0-2 at Floriana and 0-2 at Ararat-Armenia in their European away games this season, and both were quiet, low scoring nights. A controlled 1-0 for the visitors would beat this. We still expect the chasing team to force the game open.