Atalanta vs Athletic Club — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Rusty defences and brand new attacking shapes are what make midsummer games loose. Atalanta have not played in 84 days and Maurizio Sarri takes charge at their own ground for the first time, with a 28 man squad to work through. His new side let in more than a goal a game last season, and 9 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. Athletic Club are the bigger worry at the back. They won only one of seven away games last season and let in more than 2 a game on those trips. Across the whole run they let in almost 2 a game. These two have met once and it finished 3-2 to Athletic, a five goal game. This is the 27th Trofeo Bortolotti, in front of a home crowd Atalanta will want to entertain. Neither coach has much reason to lock the game down. A 2-1 Atalanta win looks the most likely score, and that already puts this on the right side. The honest catch is Athletic's scoring. They managed only 1 goal a game across 13 games, so the away goals may not arrive. Friendlies also bring wholesale changes at half time, which can flatten the tempo. We want the busier game here.