Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol — Tips & Analysis

Tokyo Verdy +0.5: Kashiwa have won 4 of their last 5, but their record on the road is a different story. On the road they have won 3, tied 1 and lost 5, and they score just over a goal a game away. Tokyo Verdy have also had the better of this meeting lately, winning the last two on their own ground, 1-0 in May and 2-1 in February. Verdy are a modest side going forward, scoring a goal a game across their last 20. They have won 6, tied 6 and lost 8 in that run, and they have not won by 2 or more once. That is the profile of a team that keeps games close and takes points off better sides. Kashiwa are the more dangerous team, with 8 wins in their last 19 and a 2-1 win over Mito Hollyhock to open the season. The last 10 meetings have split evenly, 4 wins each and 2 ties. A 1-1 is the honest read here, and that score lands this pick. The worry is Verdy's home defence. They have let in more than a goal a game at Ajinomoto Stadium, including a 0-6 to Yokohama F. Marinos and a 2-4 to Gamba Osaka. Kashiwa have won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 19, so a heavy loss is not far fetched. We still want Verdy to stay with them.