Fiorentina vs Benevento — Tips & Analysis

Fiorentina -1.5: Benevento's numbers look strong until you see where they were built. Their whole recent run came in Serie C, the level below the one they have just been promoted into. Fiorentina are a Serie A side and have been very hard to play against at home. They went unbeaten at the Franchi last season and let in under a goal a game there. Fabio Grosso's pre season points the same way, with a 2-2 tie against Real Madrid and a 1-0 win over Watford. Fiorentina have also handled this opponent before, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. Benevento are no soft touch. They have won 11 of their last 17 and let in under a goal a game. So this should be a controlled win rather than a heavy one. A 2-0 is the shape we expect, one goal either side of the break and the tie seen out without much alarm. The risk here is real and worth saying. Fiorentina score just over a goal a game and won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 13. Benevento have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 17. They also played a competitive game five days ago, and Fiorentina have not played since May. The gap in quality is still big enough, and we want Fiorentina to win by two.