France vs Italy — Tips & Analysis

Italy +1.5: France come into this with their best players missing, and that is why we are taking Italy with a head start. Kylian Mbappe is out with a knee injury he picked up scoring the winner in Turkey. Both first choice centre backs, William Saliba and Ibrahima Konate, are absent as well, along with Aurelien Tchouameni. France are still a strong team. They have won 13 of their last 16 and score more than 2 goals a game. But they have scored exactly one goal in each of their two Nations League games, winning 1-0 in Turkey and 1-0 in Belgium. This is not a side burying opponents right now. Italy travel well. They have won 5 and tied 2 of their last 8 on the road, scoring more than 2 goals a game. They also won 4-1 in Turkey last time out. A patched up French back line is the obvious place to attack them. These two are close. The last four meetings ended 2 wins each and averaged more than 3 goals. Italy are without Giacomo Raspadori, Federico Dimarco and Nicolo Zaniolo, so they are not at full strength either. An honest 1-1 looks the likeliest result. The worry is that France have won by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 16. Without Mbappe and that centre back pair, we think this stays tight.