Thailand vs Philippines — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: The Philippines hardly threaten against this level of team, and that keeps the goals down. They have not scored in three of their last four games against teams from this region, losing 0-1 to Vietnam, 0-1 to Malaysia and 0-1 to Thailand. Their away record is their best set of numbers. They let in a goal a game in away games, so they are not easy to pull apart either. Thailand have been the best side in this group by a distance. They have won both games without letting one in, 4-0 against Pakistan and 2-0 against Vietnam. They also let in under a goal a game across their last 17. That cuts both ends of the game. The Philippines will get very little, and Thailand will not need much. The history is quiet too. The last 10 meetings averaged more than 2 goals, and the most recent was a 1-0 Thailand win in August. This is a tournament game on neutral ground, so neither side has a crowd behind them. Thailand are three points clear with a +6 goal difference, so they have no need to chase a big score. A 2-0 Thailand win is the likeliest result, and that lands the bet. The risk is Thailand's attack. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won by 2 or more in 10 of their last 17. We still think this one stays tight.