Tips — Thursday, 1 October 2026
Settled picks and final results for this date
All Tips
💬 Singapore hardly ever take a beating, and that is the main reason we are with them. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13 games. Malaysia are a tidy side who defend well. They have won 9 of their last 16 and let in under a goal a game. They kept a clean sheet in both tournament games so far, beating Bangladesh 3-0 and tying 0-0 with Indonesia. Singapore match that at the back. They have won 8 of their last 13, tying 3 and losing 2, and they also let in under a goal a game. Away from home in that run they have won 5, tied 1 and lost 1. This one is played in Bandung. The whole tournament is hosted in Indonesia, so it is neutral ground and neither side gets its own crowd. Both teams keep games small as well. Only 7 of Malaysia's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and only 6 of Singapore's last 13. A tense 1-1 is the most likely score, and that keeps us well clear. The catch is that Singapore must win to reach the final. They have to push men forward late, and that is when Malaysia can hurt them. Malaysia have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16. They have also won three of the last five against Singapore, including a 4-1. We still expect Singapore to keep this tight.
💬 Singapore hardly ever take a beating, and that is the main reason we are with them. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13 games. Malaysia are a tidy side who defend well. They have won 9 of their last 16 and let in under a goal a game. They kept a clean sheet in both tournament games so far, beating Bangladesh 3-0 and tying 0-0 with Indonesia. Singapore match that at the back. They have won 8 of their last 13, tying 3 and losing 2, and they also let in under a goal a game. Away from home in that run they have won 5, tied 1 and lost 1. This one is played in Bandung. The whole tournament is hosted in Indonesia, so it is neutral ground and neither side gets its own crowd. Both teams keep games small as well. Only 7 of Malaysia's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and only 6 of Singapore's last 13. A tense 1-1 is the most likely score, and that keeps us well clear. The catch is that Singapore must win to reach the final. They have to push men forward late, and that is when Malaysia can hurt them. Malaysia have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16. They have also won three of the last five against Singapore, including a 4-1. We still expect Singapore to keep this tight.
💬 Liechtenstein barely score, and that alone keeps this game quiet. They have 3 goals in 13 games and were shut out in ten of them. With one team not scoring, a high-scoring night needs Azerbaijan to run riot on their own. They are not that side. Azerbaijan have won once in their last 13 games, with 4 ties and 8 losses, and they score a goal a game. Even at home they stay under 2 goals a game. Azerbaijan have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 13. Both teams look high scoring on paper, and that is misleading. Their big totals come from heavy beatings by far better sides, 0-6 to Sweden, 0-5 to Iceland and 0-7 to Belgium. Azerbaijan do not carry that kind of attack. Expect slow possession against a deep Liechtenstein block in Baku, with any goals coming from pressure rather than from an open game. Liechtenstein have had seven days of rest to Azerbaijan's four, so they should have the legs to hold their shape. A 2-0 Azerbaijan win is the most likely score, and that sits comfortably on our side. Here is the honest risk. Liechtenstein have lost by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 13. They have let in 7, 6, 5, 4 and 4 goals in games in that run. We still expect a slow, low-scoring night in Baku.
💬 Liechtenstein barely score, and that alone keeps this game quiet. They have 3 goals in 13 games and were shut out in ten of them. With one team not scoring, a high-scoring night needs Azerbaijan to run riot on their own. They are not that side. Azerbaijan have won once in their last 13 games, with 4 ties and 8 losses, and they score a goal a game. Even at home they stay under 2 goals a game. Azerbaijan have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 13. Both teams look high scoring on paper, and that is misleading. Their big totals come from heavy beatings by far better sides, 0-6 to Sweden, 0-5 to Iceland and 0-7 to Belgium. Azerbaijan do not carry that kind of attack. Expect slow possession against a deep Liechtenstein block in Baku, with any goals coming from pressure rather than from an open game. Liechtenstein have had seven days of rest to Azerbaijan's four, so they should have the legs to hold their shape. A 2-0 Azerbaijan win is the most likely score, and that sits comfortably on our side. Here is the honest risk. Liechtenstein have lost by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 13. They have let in 7, 6, 5, 4 and 4 goals in games in that run. We still expect a slow, low-scoring night in Baku.
💬 The Netherlands keep getting held in games like this, and that is the heart of the case for a quiet night. They have not lost in their last 16, but 7 of those ended level. The ties came against the better sides they faced: 1-1 with Germany, 1-1 in Poland, 1-1 with Morocco. Their big scoring run is built on 4-0 wins over Lithuania, Finland and Malta, not on games against real opposition. Greece are set up to make this awkward. They have won 8 of their last 14 and their games tend to stay small, with just under 3 goals in total on average. Greece have won both their Nations League games on the road, 1-0 at Germany and 2-1 at Serbia. They did it without taking either game over. Both teams have team news to deal with as well. The Dutch are missing Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey, and Greece are without Georgios Vagiannidis. The Dutch won both previous meetings 1-0 and 3-0, so even their wins here have been low on goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score, which is just what we want. The warning is simple. The Netherlands are the stronger team and their games average almost 4 goals in total. If they click early, this can run away from us. We still want the low-scoring game.
💬 The Netherlands keep getting held in games like this, and that is the heart of the case for a quiet night. They have not lost in their last 16, but 7 of those ended level. The ties came against the better sides they faced: 1-1 with Germany, 1-1 in Poland, 1-1 with Morocco. Their big scoring run is built on 4-0 wins over Lithuania, Finland and Malta, not on games against real opposition. Greece are set up to make this awkward. They have won 8 of their last 14 and their games tend to stay small, with just under 3 goals in total on average. Greece have won both their Nations League games on the road, 1-0 at Germany and 2-1 at Serbia. They did it without taking either game over. Both teams have team news to deal with as well. The Dutch are missing Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey, and Greece are without Georgios Vagiannidis. The Dutch won both previous meetings 1-0 and 3-0, so even their wins here have been low on goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score, which is just what we want. The warning is simple. The Netherlands are the stronger team and their games average almost 4 goals in total. If they click early, this can run away from us. We still want the low-scoring game.
💬 Portugal have better players almost everywhere on the pitch, and that is the main reason we are on them. They have won 10 of their last 16 games, tying 4 and losing 2. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in 1 goal a game. Denmark are solid but not in that class. They have won 6 of their last 16, with 5 ties and 5 losses, scoring almost 2 goals a game and letting in more than a goal. Parken is where Denmark are at their best. They have lost one of their last seven there and let in less than a goal a game at home. Denmark also sit third in the group on 3 points, behind Portugal on 6, so they cannot sit back and defend all night. That suits Portugal, who punish teams that come out. Denmark are without Patrick Dorgu, who picked up a muscle problem, and Albert Gronbaek is missing too. We read this as a 1-2 Portugal win, with chances at both ends. The last three meetings between these two produced more than 4 goals a game. There is a real catch. Denmark beat Portugal 1-0 in Copenhagen in March 2025, and a packed Danish defence can turn this into a one-goal game either way. Portugal's shape up front is also unclear. We still want Portugal to come through here.
💬 Portugal have better players almost everywhere on the pitch, and that is the main reason we are on them. They have won 10 of their last 16 games, tying 4 and losing 2. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in 1 goal a game. Denmark are solid but not in that class. They have won 6 of their last 16, with 5 ties and 5 losses, scoring almost 2 goals a game and letting in more than a goal. Parken is where Denmark are at their best. They have lost one of their last seven there and let in less than a goal a game at home. Denmark also sit third in the group on 3 points, behind Portugal on 6, so they cannot sit back and defend all night. That suits Portugal, who punish teams that come out. Denmark are without Patrick Dorgu, who picked up a muscle problem, and Albert Gronbaek is missing too. We read this as a 1-2 Portugal win, with chances at both ends. The last three meetings between these two produced more than 4 goals a game. There is a real catch. Denmark beat Portugal 1-0 in Copenhagen in March 2025, and a packed Danish defence can turn this into a one-goal game either way. Portugal's shape up front is also unclear. We still want Portugal to come through here.
💬 Norway are a much better team than Wales, and Wales are in no state to stop them. Wales have not scored a goal in this group. They lost 0-1 in Portugal and 0-2 in Denmark, and they sit bottom with no points. Craig Bellamy is without seven players through injury, including Harry Wilson, David Brooks, Rubin Colwill and Joe Rodon. That takes out most of his creative players and two centre backs. Norway have won 11 of their last 14 games and have not tied once in that run. They have won all five of their away games. On the road they score more than 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game. Erling Haaland leads a direct front line against a Welsh back four already short of bodies. Wales are in the relegation place and have to chase the game, so gaps should open late on. Norway have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 14. The most likely single score is a 1-2 Norway win. That is only a one-goal game, so we need Norway to add a second. Wales taking risks is how that extra goal arrives. The warning is real. Alexander Sorloth is out and Martin Odegaard is an ankle doubt, which thins the help around Haaland. Norway have also let in a goal in each of their last four games. We still want Norway to win this by a clear margin.
💬 Norway are a much better team than Wales, and Wales are in no state to stop them. Wales have not scored a goal in this group. They lost 0-1 in Portugal and 0-2 in Denmark, and they sit bottom with no points. Craig Bellamy is without seven players through injury, including Harry Wilson, David Brooks, Rubin Colwill and Joe Rodon. That takes out most of his creative players and two centre backs. Norway have won 11 of their last 14 games and have not tied once in that run. They have won all five of their away games. On the road they score more than 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game. Erling Haaland leads a direct front line against a Welsh back four already short of bodies. Wales are in the relegation place and have to chase the game, so gaps should open late on. Norway have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 14. The most likely single score is a 1-2 Norway win. That is only a one-goal game, so we need Norway to add a second. Wales taking risks is how that extra goal arrives. The warning is real. Alexander Sorloth is out and Martin Odegaard is an ankle doubt, which thins the help around Haaland. Norway have also let in a goal in each of their last four games. We still want Norway to win this by a clear margin.
UEFA Nations League
Rep. Of Irelandvs
Austria💬 Both teams are missing the players who score their goals, and that is the best reason to expect a quiet night. Austria are without David Alaba and Christoph Baumgartner, and Kevin Danso is suspended. Ireland have it worse. Nathan Collins, Evan Ferguson, Mikey Johnston, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor and Jamie McGrath are all out, which strips away most of their attacking threat. Ireland have not lost at the Aviva in this run, with 4 wins and a tie from five games. They let in less than a goal a game there. They beat Portugal 2-0 in that run. Austria look a different team away from home. They score 3 goals a game at home but only just over a goal on the road, where they have won 3, tied 1 and lost 4. They let in more than a goal a game in those away games too. These two also keep it tight with each other. The last two meetings finished 1-1 and 1-0, both low on goals. Ireland will be happy with a slow, physical night, and a 1-1 is the most likely score. That is exactly where we want it. The risk is a late scramble. Ireland are third in the group and in danger of dropping down, so they may throw bodies forward in the last twenty minutes. Austria's games have averaged more than 3 goals in total as well. We still want the low-scoring game.
💬 Both teams are missing the players who score their goals, and that is the best reason to expect a quiet night. Austria are without David Alaba and Christoph Baumgartner, and Kevin Danso is suspended. Ireland have it worse. Nathan Collins, Evan Ferguson, Mikey Johnston, Josh Cullen, Jack Taylor and Jamie McGrath are all out, which strips away most of their attacking threat. Ireland have not lost at the Aviva in this run, with 4 wins and a tie from five games. They let in less than a goal a game there. They beat Portugal 2-0 in that run. Austria look a different team away from home. They score 3 goals a game at home but only just over a goal on the road, where they have won 3, tied 1 and lost 4. They let in more than a goal a game in those away games too. These two also keep it tight with each other. The last two meetings finished 1-1 and 1-0, both low on goals. Ireland will be happy with a slow, physical night, and a 1-1 is the most likely score. That is exactly where we want it. The risk is a late scramble. Ireland are third in the group and in danger of dropping down, so they may throw bodies forward in the last twenty minutes. Austria's games have averaged more than 3 goals in total as well. We still want the low-scoring game.
💬 Kosovo are the better organised team and Israel are falling apart at the back. That is the case here. Israel have lost 10 of their last 16 games and let in more than 2 goals a game. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 8 of those 16. Every decent side they have met lately has beaten them heavily: 0-3 against Ireland, 1-3 in Austria, 0-3 to Italy and 0-5 against Norway. They have also lost five of their eight games in Debrecen, letting in more than 2 goals a game there. Kosovo have won 10 of their last 16 and let in just over a goal a game. They have won five of their last eight on the road, which is the part that matters most here. Israel sit bottom of the group with no points and a goal difference of minus five, and Ireland took them apart 3-0 on Sunday. Kosovo will still have to break down a desperate opponent. We read this as a 1-2 Kosovo win in an open game rather than a controlled one. There are things to watch. Israel get Sayed Abu Farchi back up front after a ban, and the two previous meetings were close, 1-0 and 1-1. Kosovo were beaten 3-1 in Austria last time out, so they are far from perfect. Kosovo are still the side we want.
💬 Kosovo are the better organised team and Israel are falling apart at the back. That is the case here. Israel have lost 10 of their last 16 games and let in more than 2 goals a game. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 8 of those 16. Every decent side they have met lately has beaten them heavily: 0-3 against Ireland, 1-3 in Austria, 0-3 to Italy and 0-5 against Norway. They have also lost five of their eight games in Debrecen, letting in more than 2 goals a game there. Kosovo have won 10 of their last 16 and let in just over a goal a game. They have won five of their last eight on the road, which is the part that matters most here. Israel sit bottom of the group with no points and a goal difference of minus five, and Ireland took them apart 3-0 on Sunday. Kosovo will still have to break down a desperate opponent. We read this as a 1-2 Kosovo win in an open game rather than a controlled one. There are things to watch. Israel get Sayed Abu Farchi back up front after a ban, and the two previous meetings were close, 1-0 and 1-1. Kosovo were beaten 3-1 in Austria last time out, so they are far from perfect. Kosovo are still the side we want.
💬 Malta do not win games by a big margin, and that is the whole case for Gibraltar. Malta have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 13 games. They score less than a goal a game and have 7 goals in 13 competitive matches. At home it is even thinner, with less than a goal a game across their last seven. Gibraltar cannot score either. They have 5 goals in 14 games and manage less than a goal a game. They have lost 10 of their last 14 and have not won away in seven. So this points to a cramped, slow game decided by one moment. Gibraltar held Andorra to a 0-0 tie on Sunday. Malta won 2-1 in Andorra to open the group, and they have had seven days of rest against Gibraltar's four. That should be enough for Malta to edge a 1-0 win, which is the most likely score and keeps us on the right side. Now the honest part. Gibraltar let in more than 2 goals a game on the road and have lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 14. Malta also beat them 1-0 and 2-0 in the last two meetings, so a second goal is not out of the question. We still expect Malta to win small, and that is why we are with Gibraltar.
💬 Malta do not win games by a big margin, and that is the whole case for Gibraltar. Malta have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 13 games. They score less than a goal a game and have 7 goals in 13 competitive matches. At home it is even thinner, with less than a goal a game across their last seven. Gibraltar cannot score either. They have 5 goals in 14 games and manage less than a goal a game. They have lost 10 of their last 14 and have not won away in seven. So this points to a cramped, slow game decided by one moment. Gibraltar held Andorra to a 0-0 tie on Sunday. Malta won 2-1 in Andorra to open the group, and they have had seven days of rest against Gibraltar's four. That should be enough for Malta to edge a 1-0 win, which is the most likely score and keeps us on the right side. Now the honest part. Gibraltar let in more than 2 goals a game on the road and have lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 14. Malta also beat them 1-0 and 2-0 in the last two meetings, so a second goal is not out of the question. We still expect Malta to win small, and that is why we are with Gibraltar.
Major League Soccer
Seattle Soundersvs
Sporting Kansas City💬 Seattle almost never win games by a big margin, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 20 games. Seattle have won only 4 of those 20, tying 6 and losing 10. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Their front line is in pieces tonight. Ferreira, Joveljic, Rothrock, de la Vega and Petkovic are all out, and Dotson is suspended. Kansas City are a mess on the road. They have won 2 and lost 9 away from home, and they let in 3 goals a game in those trips. Kansas City sit last in the Western Conference with a goal difference of minus 32. The part that helps us is that they keep scoring at the other end. Kansas City's games have had 3 or more goals in 15 of their last 20. These two are level over the long run as well, 9 wins each from the last 20 meetings, and those games averaged more than 3 goals. A 2-1 Seattle win is the most likely score. A one-goal game is exactly what we want. The danger is clear. Kansas City have lost by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 20, and Seattle beat them 5-2 in 2025. Seattle are still short of finishers, so we are happy to take Kansas City staying close.
💬 Seattle almost never win games by a big margin, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 20 games. Seattle have won only 4 of those 20, tying 6 and losing 10. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Their front line is in pieces tonight. Ferreira, Joveljic, Rothrock, de la Vega and Petkovic are all out, and Dotson is suspended. Kansas City are a mess on the road. They have won 2 and lost 9 away from home, and they let in 3 goals a game in those trips. Kansas City sit last in the Western Conference with a goal difference of minus 32. The part that helps us is that they keep scoring at the other end. Kansas City's games have had 3 or more goals in 15 of their last 20. These two are level over the long run as well, 9 wins each from the last 20 meetings, and those games averaged more than 3 goals. A 2-1 Seattle win is the most likely score. A one-goal game is exactly what we want. The danger is clear. Kansas City have lost by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 20, and Seattle beat them 5-2 in 2025. Seattle are still short of finishers, so we are happy to take Kansas City staying close.
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