Belgium vs Türkiye — Tips & Analysis

Türkiye +1.25: Belgium will be short handed for this one, and that is why we want Türkiye to stay close. Thibaut Courtois and Jeremy Doku are out of the squad altogether. Diego Moreira is suspended, and Romeo Lavia faces a late fitness test. Belgium still win most of their games. They have lost only 2 of their last 16 and they let in under a goal a game. The catch is the winning margin. Belgium have won by 2 or more goals in just 7 of those 16, so they tend to win without burying teams. Türkiye are better than the group table says. They score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they have won 4 of 7, scoring just over 2 a game. They have also been creating plenty without getting paid for it. Belgium, meanwhile, have been giving up far more chances than their results suggest, and now they do it without Courtois. Both squads played four days ago, so legs will be heavy and both coaches will change players. A 2-1 Belgium win is the likeliest result, and a one goal game is exactly the shape we want. The risk is simple. Türkiye have lost four of their last five, including 1-4 at home to Italy, and they sit bottom of the group with no points. We still think they keep this tight.