Ajax vs Willem II — Tips & Analysis

Willem II +2.75: Ajax will almost certainly win this game. The question is the margin, and that is where Willem II have held up better than the table suggests. Ajax have beaten them by three or more just once in the last five meetings, a 5-0 in December 2021. The other four finished 2-1, 1-0, 1-0 and 3-1. Ajax score almost 3 goals a game and have won 9 of their last 14. They are also looser than that record looks. At home they have won 4, tied 2 and lost 1, and they let in more than a goal a game there. PSV beat them 1-3 in Amsterdam on 5 September. Willem II are in real trouble. They sit 17th with 2 points from 5 games and have let in 9 more than they have scored. They have seven players out, including their goalkeeper and centre back Justin Hoogma. NEC beat them 1-4 and GO Ahead Eagles beat them 1-4. Even so, they should get one back against a defence that has let in goals in every home game it has played this season. A 3-1 to Ajax is the likely finish, and that margin keeps this pick alive. The danger is plain. Ajax have won 5-1 and 4-0 inside the last month, and a night like that beats us. We are taking Willem II to stay within range.