Genoa vs Sudtirol — Tips & Analysis

Sudtirol +1: Genoa cannot score, and that is the case for Sudtirol staying in this tie. Genoa have managed under a goal a game all season, with just 4 wins in their last 15. Their home form is worse again. They have won 2 and lost 5 of their eight home games, letting in almost 2 goals a game in front of their own crowd. De Rossi is changing the side heavily too. El Shaarawy and Havel lead the attack, with Stolz in goal and a much changed back line behind them. Sudtirol are no great attacking force themselves. They have tied 9 of their last 18 games and score a goal a game. What they do well is stay in games. Sudtirol have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 18. They arrive unbeaten in Serie B, after knocking Catanzaro out on penalties. Expect a slow, tight cup night decided by one moment. The honest read is a scruffy 1-0 to Genoa, and that is not quite the result this pick needs. We want Sudtirol to take this one to the wire, and a 0-0 after 90 minutes is a very live outcome. The warning is Genoa's cup form. They beat Ascoli 4-1 at home in the last round, so their cup side can punish a lower division team. We still think Sudtirol keep this close.