Alaves vs Villarreal — Tips & Analysis

Alaves +0.25: Villarreal keep tying games away from home, and that shapes this one. Five of their last ten road games ended level, at just over a goal scored and just over a goal let in. Both of their league games this season finished 2-2. Alaves are in decent shape. They sit fifth, they have let in one goal in two league games, and they put three past Getafe. They have lost by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 16 games, so heavy defeats are not their habit. They also have eight days' rest to Villarreal's five, which tells in the last twenty minutes. Both teams are patched up at the back. Alaves are without the suspended Facundo Garces and cannot call on Lucas Boye. Villarreal are missing Copete and Diego Lopez, with Gerard Moreno in doubt. These two tend to give each other chances, and their meetings have averaged just over 3 goals a game. That should get Alaves on the board. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and a tie is a good result for us. The caution here is squad quality. Villarreal have won by 2 or more in 4 of their last 16 games, and a makeshift Alaves back line could crack early. We still want Alaves, fresher and at home, to stay in this one.