Lille vs Paris Saint Germain — Tips & Analysis

Paris Saint Germain -0.5: PSG have owned this game. They have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, and Lille have beaten them just 3 times in that run. That is the case for backing PSG to win it again. Lille are a hard team to break down. They let in less than a goal a game, and only 4 of their last 15 games have reached 3 goals. The problem is at the other end. Lille barely score at home, at under a goal a game there, and they have lost twice in their last seven at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. PSG score just over 2 goals a game and have not lost by 2 or more in their last 18. One clean chance usually does it for them. Now the honest part. Our read is a 1-1 tie, and a tie is no good to us here. We need PSG to find a winner, and they have done that in this game far more often than not. The worry is who plays. Dembele has been rested, Barcola and Mbaye are out amid unresolved transfers, and Mendes is suspended, so this is a patched-up front line. Lille will sit deep and wait for exactly that. We still want PSG to win it, but this one is closer than the names suggest.