AC Milan vs Venezia — Tips & Analysis

Venezia +1.5: Milan do not win big, and that is the case here. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 16 games, and they score just over a goal a game. Their home record in that run is poor too, with 2 wins, 2 ties and 4 losses at San Siro. Fofana and Tomori are out, and Leao and Gimenez are both doubtful, so the attack may be short of its two best finishers. Venezia are the sort of side that makes that a problem. They were unbeaten in six away games, letting in less than a goal a game, and they have lost once in their last 15. They defend deep, keep the game slow and are happy to take a point. Our read is a 2-0 Milan win, and we will be straight with you: that beats this pick. We need Venezia to get on the scoresheet, or to hold Milan to one goal. Milan have been blunt all year, so both of those look live. The risk is the history. Milan have won the last four meetings 2-0, 4-0, 3-0 and 2-0, so they have a habit of doing this in comfort. Venezia's strong record also came in a lower division, and their one game at this level was a 0-2 home loss to Lecce. We are still with Venezia to keep it tight.