Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart — Tips & Analysis

VfB Stuttgart +2.25: Bayern win most games, but they do not often win them by a landslide. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 15, and that is the case for keeping Stuttgart close. Bayern are strong at the Allianz Arena. They have won 12 of their last 15 games and score just over 3 goals a game, so the lead should come early. They are also without Musiala, Gnabry and Buchmann, which takes some finishing power out of the second half. Stuttgart are not coming here just to defend. They score 2 goals a game and have scored in each of their last five league games. Their away games are open at both ends, so they will get their chances on the break. The last 20 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals, and both teams tend to score in this one. Our read is a 3-1 Bayern win. That is the sort of night this pick is built for, because Stuttgart get on the scoresheet and the margin stays small. The worry is the treatment room. Stuttgart have eight players ruled out, four of them defenders, and they have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 14. This is also the first league game of the season, so there is no form to lean on. We still think Bayern win without pulling away.