Greece vs Netherlands — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: The Netherlands keep getting held in games like this, and that is the heart of the case for a quiet night. They have not lost in their last 16, but 7 of those ended level. The ties came against the better sides they faced: 1-1 with Germany, 1-1 in Poland, 1-1 with Morocco. Their big scoring run is built on 4-0 wins over Lithuania, Finland and Malta, not on games against real opposition. Greece are set up to make this awkward. They have won 8 of their last 14 and their games tend to stay small, with just under 3 goals in total on average. Greece have won both their Nations League games on the road, 1-0 at Germany and 2-1 at Serbia. They did it without taking either game over. Both teams have team news to deal with as well. The Dutch are missing Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey, and Greece are without Georgios Vagiannidis. The Dutch won both previous meetings 1-0 and 3-0, so even their wins here have been low on goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score, which is just what we want. The warning is simple. The Netherlands are the stronger team and their games average almost 4 goals in total. If they click early, this can run away from us. We still want the low-scoring game.