Groningen vs PEC Zwolle — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: This game has a long history of staying quiet. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged just over 2 goals, and the last five read 1-1, 2-2, 0-2, 0-0 and 0-0. Groningen are the better side and have lost only twice in seven at the Euroborg. They score almost 2 goals a game, but they are missing five players in Brandis, Hernes, Jeng, Mercera and Metu. That is not the shape of a team who blow a game wide open. Zwolle are the problem in reverse. They sit 16th with a goal difference of minus 11 and were beaten 0-7 at home by Feyenoord last time out. They score 1 goal a game and have won only one of their seven away trips. A side who barely score, against a home side short of bodies, points to a controlled night rather than a shootout. A 2-1 Groningen win is the likely finish, and that keeps the total where we want it. The warning is a real one. Groningen's own games have been busy, with 10 of their last 14 producing 3 or more goals. Zwolle also let in almost 3 goals a game on the road. One extra goal turns this from a winner into a loser. The history between these two still wins the argument, so we want the quieter game.