Brentford vs Chelsea — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: Chelsea cannot keep a clean sheet right now. They have let in two or more in all four of their league games. Those read 2-2 against Hull, 1-2 at Arsenal, 4-3 against Brighton and 3-2 at Fulham. They score plenty themselves, so their games keep getting stretched. Chelsea score almost 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, and 9 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Brentford play their part in that. Their games have averaged just over 3 goals, with 12 of their last 18 producing 3 or more, and they score almost 2 a game. The problem is at the back, where they are missing both first choice centre backs in Collins and van den Berg, along with Jensen, Dasilva and Furo. A patched up back line against this Chelsea attack is asking for trouble. There is a tiredness angle too. Brentford played at Reading on 15 September and have had 3 days off, against 6 for Chelsea. Legs go late in games like that, and late goals follow. A 2-2 is the likely finish, an open London night that neither side closes out. That clears what we need with room to spare. The catch is that Brentford let in only a goal a game at home. These two have also tied 5 of their 14 meetings, one of them a 0-0. We still want the goals.