Moreirense vs Maritimo — Tips & Analysis

Maritimo +0.25: Moreirense cannot score, and that is the heart of this one. They have four points from five league games, sit 15th, and carry a goal difference of minus 8. Across their last 15 games they score less than a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 8 in that run, and they have not won by 2 or more goals in any of them. They are also without Guilherme Liberato, banned for a second game after his red card at Porto. Maritimo are no powerhouse up front, but they are far better balanced. They have won 7 and lost 5 of their last 14, and they score just over a goal a game. They let in about the same. On the road they have won 3 and lost 3, and they arrive with nine days of rest to Moreirense's five. That freshness counts in a game that one moment is likely to decide. Maritimo have won 7 of the last 18 meetings between these two, and those games averaged just over 2 goals. A 0-1 to Maritimo is the shape that fits here. The caution is Maritimo's own record. Five of their last ten games came against second tier sides, so their numbers flatter them. They have also lost their last two top flight games. Moreirense have tied three of their eight games at their own ground, so a tight night is live. We still want the away side here.