Rio Ave vs Estrela — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.25: Estrela take goals with them wherever they go. Every one of their last five league games had at least three goals, finishing 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 2-2 and 2-2. Across a longer run, 8 of their last 11 games had 3 or more. That is the strongest reason we want goals here. The reason is simple. Estrela are dangerous going forward and soft at the back. They let in 2 goals a game on the road, so even a struggling home side gets chances against them. Rio Ave are struggling badly. They sit 16th, they lost their last two games 4-0, and they score less than a goal a game. The useful part for us is their defending. They have won once in seven home games and let in more than 2 goals a game there. So we expect an open, untidy night in Vila do Conde. Estrela should take the lead and Rio Ave should pull one back without ever looking like turning it around, which points to a 1-2. That gets us home. The risk is that Rio Ave give up on attacking and sit deep. They have beaten Estrela in 5 of the last 8 meetings, and one of those recent wins was a 2-0, so a quiet night is not far-fetched. We still want the goals, because Estrela have not given anyone a dull game yet.