Leeds vs Newcastle — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Newcastle have almost nothing going forward on the road, and that is the base of this pick. They score under a goal a game away from home, against more than 2 a game at their own ground. They are missing Joelinton, Dan Burn and Osula, which takes out the size and power that usually earns them goals away. Leeds have turned Elland Road into a grind. They have 3 wins and a tie there with no defeat, and they let in less than a goal a game at home. This meeting has a quiet history too. The last 11 games between them have averaged under 3 goals, five ended level, and two finished 0-0. Leeds have won 2 and lost 4 of those 11, so it is usually close and careful rather than open. A 1-0 to Leeds is our read, decided by one moment rather than a run of clear chances. The honest warning is the Leeds defence. They let in six at Chelsea in the cup last week, and 9 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals in them. Newcastle have not lost in five either, so they are not arriving broken. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.