Fulham vs Chelsea — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Everything about this game points to a low-scoring night. Neither team has played since May, both have a new manager taking charge for the first time, and opening day usually brings caution rather than chaos. Fulham are the quiet half of this. They score a goal a game and let in under a goal at Craven Cottage. Only 5 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Joachim Andersen is suspended, which hurts, but the shape and the set pieces are what they lean on anyway. Chelsea come in short too. Wesley Fofana is suspended and Jordan Henderson is still not fit. Chelsea took one point from their last five away games and scored under a goal a trip. They won 3, tied 1 and lost 10 across their last 14 games, so this is not a team full of belief. The head to head says the same thing. The last 20 meetings have averaged 2 goals in total, and only about a third of them had 3 or more. A game short of clean chances suits Fulham, and 1-0 to the home side is the most likely score. That is well inside what we need. The one worry is Chelsea's own recent games. 9 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals, and they let in plenty on the road. If this opens up early, it can get away from us fast. We are still backing the tight game.