AS Roma vs Fiorentina — Tips & Analysis

Fiorentina +1: Fiorentina do not get beaten up. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 13 games. They finish within a goal of their opponent in about five of every six. That is the whole reason we are on them. Roma are the better team here and their home numbers say so. They score more than 2 goals a game at the Olimpico and let in only one. They also closed last season with five straight wins. The catch is the size of those wins. Roma have won by 2 or more in only 6 of their last 15 games. Fiorentina lost just 2 of their last 13 and tied 5 of them. They score just over a goal a game, so they will not run Roma over, but they are hard to break down. They also have a game in the legs, beating Benevento 4-1 in the cup ten days ago. Roma have not played a competitive game in 92 days. The likely score is a 2-1 Roma win. That does not quite get this home on its own. For a clean win we need Fiorentina to tie it or take the game, and their record says they stay close often enough. The warning is May, when Roma beat this same team 4-0 in Rome. Roma also lead the last 20 meetings 11 wins to 5. We are still with the away side staying close.