Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Goals are hard to find whenever Atletico Paranaense play, and that shapes this one. They let in under a goal a game, and their games have averaged under 2 goals in total across 18 games. Only 5 of those 18 had 3 or more goals in them. On the road they score under a goal a game, so they do not force the play. Botafogo are tight at their own ground too. They have won 5 of their 8 home games and let in under a goal a game there. The bigger issue is tired legs. This is their third game in nine days, and Arthur Cabral is suspended after a red card, with Kaio Pantaleao and Paulinho also out. Atletico Paranaense have had nine days off, so they can sit deep and take their time. The head to head says the same thing. The last 20 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals, and only 3 in 10 of them had 3 or more goals. A 1-1 tie is the likely finish, and that keeps this game quiet. The risk is a collapse. Botafogo were beaten 1-6 at Cienciano on 14 August, and 9 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them. Atletico Paranaense also won the last meeting 4-1 back in March. We still expect a slow, careful night with few clear chances.