Tips — Thursday, 20 August 2026

💬 Kairat are hard to beat at their own ground, and Anderlecht are poor travellers. That is why we are with the home side in this first leg. Kairat have won 6 of their 9 home games and let in under a goal a game there. Across their last 19 games they have not lost by 2 or more once. Anderlecht have won only 2 of their 8 away games, scoring under a goal a game on the road and letting in almost 2. They have won by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 15, so big away wins are not their thing. They travel without Killian Sardella and Ibrahim Camara, and Mario Stroeykens and Mouhamed Belkheir face late fitness tests. The trip to Almaty is the longest in European football, and a tired side rarely takes control of a first leg. Kairat's own European games have been tight, one goal in their last four legs with three of them finishing 1-0 or 0-1. A 1-0 to Kairat is the way this looks, a slim lead to take to Brussels. The risk is real. Anderlecht have won 4 of their last 5 and have been playing well, whatever the away record says, and their two doubtful men could be passed fit. We are still with Kairat here.

💬 Both teams keep turning up in games with goals in them. Salzburg's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, counting both sides. Mjallby's games have 3. That is the shape we are backing. Mjallby are the reigning Swedish champions, but this season they have won only three of their eight games at Strandvallen. They score more than a goal a game. They also let in more than a goal a game. 9 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. Their form is poor right now, with one win in their last five. Slovan Bratislava beat them at home to knock them out of the Champions League. Salzburg are the better side. They score just over 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. They let in more than a goal a game too, so Mjallby should get chances of their own. That points to an open game. Salzburg control the big moments and win by the odd goal, with Mjallby scoring in front of their own crowd. A 1-2 is the most likely score, and that does not leave much room to spare. The warning here is real. This is the first game of a two legged tie, with the return in Austria, so Salzburg may be happy to sit on a lead. Only 4 of Mjallby's 16 games have gone past three goals. We still want the goals in this one.

💬 Egnatia are the better side at their own ground and their home games this summer have been wild. Their three home European ties finished 5-1 over Shamrock Rovers, 3-3 with Celje and 6-1 over Petrocub. They score almost 2 goals a game and their games have more than 3 goals in them on average, so they always carry a threat. The worry is at the other end. Egnatia have not kept a clean sheet in six European games and they let in more than a goal a game. Lillestrom are not the side to punish that. They have scored less than a goal a game across eight away trips. Their recent run includes a 0-2 to Rosenborg, a 0-4 at Bodo/Glimt and a 1-2 to Viking. Their last five games gave them one win, one tie and three defeats. Expect the Norwegians to sit deep and try to take the tie home level. That hands Egnatia the ball and the tempo for long spells. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that is a winning night for this pick. The risk is real. Lillestrom are organised enough to nick one and hold on. Egnatia's league record is built in a weak Albanian Superliga, so their level outside Europe is hard to read. We are still with the home side to be in front at the end.

💬 This is the ready team against the rusty one. Ferencvaros have played their way through three European qualifying rounds and have not lost away in them. Trabzonspor have had one competitive game since 22 May, a 1-1 at Kasimpasa. That is a lot of rust to shake off on a big night. Ferencvaros have won 10 of their last 16 games and lost only 2. They score almost 2 goals a game, let in less than one, and have lost by 2 or more just once in those 16 games. Trabzonspor are hard to beat at home, with only 2 defeats in their last 16. They are not a team who run games away from people though, winning by 2 or more in just 3 of those 16. The hosts are also missing Arseniy Batagov, Tim Jabol-Folcarelli and Ernest Muci. Okay Yokuslu is short of match fitness. Ferencvaros report no fresh injuries. Papara Park will be loud and Trabzonspor will push hard early. Fradi are comfortable soaking that up and hitting back on the counter, and they have tied three of their last five. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and that is a winning night for this pick. The catch is the turnaround. Ferencvaros played on 17 August and have three days' rest to Trabzonspor's five, so tired legs late on are a worry. We are still with the visitors to keep this tight.

💬 Both these teams want to attack, and that is why we are backing goals. Craiova are strong at the Ion Oblemenco, where they have won 6, tied 2 and lost 1, scoring more than 2 goals a game there. Ararat-Armenia do not travel to defend. They score 2 goals a game on the road across eight away trips and let in more than a goal a game. Their three away qualifying games this summer finished 0-2 at Celje, 1-2 at Shamrock Rovers and 2-3 at Riga, so they lose but they keep swinging. Ararat have won 12 of their last 18 games and their matches have almost 3 goals in them on average. Craiova have a problem too. Goalkeeper Pavlo Isenko and midfielder Alexandru Iamandache are both out with knee injuries, and Ararat arrive with a fully fit squad. Expect the hosts to take the lead and hold it, giving one up along the way. A 2-1 is the likeliest score and that clears this bet. The honest warning is Craiova's habit of dull nights. They have tied 7 of their last 18 games and only 8 of those 18 had 3 or more goals. They also let in less than a goal a game at their own ground. That makes a slow, careful match a live outcome. We still want the busier game, because Ararat keep swinging on the road, scoring 2 goals a game across their eight away trips.

💬 Lech are far the better team here and they are in top form. The Polish champions have won 11 of their last 17 games and lost only one. They have won their last four in a row, including a 5-0 at KI Klaksvik, and they beat Aarhus 4-1 away in Europe last month. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in less than one. Thun are the opposite. They have lost 10 of their last 17 games and let in more than 2 goals a game. Their matches have more than 4 goals in them on average. The Swiss side lost 0-6 and 3-8 to Young Boys and 2-4 at Basel this year, so their back line falls open against good attacks. Lech should take control early at a full Stadion Poznan and stretch the lead after the break. Thun have scored on every European away trip this summer, so a 3-1 looks like the shape of it. That is a two goal home win, and it lands this pick. Two things could spoil it. Lech are without both first choice wingers, Ali Gholizadeh and Leo Bengtsson, which blunts the width they normally attack with. Their only defeat in 17 games was a 0-3 at home to Aarhus, so a flat European night is possible. We are still happy to back the champions to win this clearly.

💬 Zvezda have been rolling at the Marakana and they should have too much for a loose Plzen side. Their recent home run reads 5-0 against Larne, 5-0 against Macva and 3-1 against Vojvodina, with a 4-0 win away at Larne alongside it. They have won 7 of their last 13 games, score just over 2 goals a game and let in less than one. They are fresh as well, with nine days since their last game to Plzen's five. Plzen are playing the wildest football in this tie. Their last four league games finished 3-2, 5-5, 1-1 and 1-3. Away from home they score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game too. That is a team who will hand Zvezda chances rather than shut the game down. Expect the hosts to be on top for long spells, with the visitors getting on the scoresheet at some point. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that is a winning night for this pick. Two warnings before you back it. Zvezda's big scores came against Larne and Macva, and Plzen are a clear level up from those two. Their last real test ended without a goal in either game against Hapoel Beer Sheva, losing 0-1 and 0-2. We are still with the home side to come out in front.

💬 CSKA Sofia have built this season on keeping the ball out of their own net, and that is the main reason we want the quiet game here. They have let in under a goal a game across their last 14, and their away football has been about control rather than chances. Eight away games have brought them just over a goal a game, with less than one going in at the other end, including 0-0 both ways with Qarabag. OFI are the bigger question. They have played one competitive game since 17 May, a 2-2 tie with AEK Athens on 12 August, so they come in short of match rhythm. Pankritio has still been a decent base for them, with 4 wins from 7 there. CSKA land in Crete four days after a league game, and a long trip on short rest rarely brings open football. Neither side wants to lose this tie in the first 90 minutes, so both should keep plenty of men behind the ball. A 1-1 is the way this looks, both finding one goal and neither breaking it open. The honest worry is what OFI have been part of lately. 10 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals, and CSKA's Joel Zwarts has 5 goals in his last 5 league games. One loose spell would change this, but we still want the tight game.

💬 Omonia have gone quiet in front of goal in Europe, and that is the strongest reason to want a low-scoring game. They scored three goals across four qualifying legs this summer against Kairat Almaty and Lincoln Red Imps. Ten of their last 16 games have finished with fewer than 3 goals in them. The defending is the real strength, one loss in their last 16 and well under a goal a game let in. They score more than 2 goals a game overall, but that comes from the Cypriot league and it has not travelled. St. Truiden have been steady at Stayen, winning 3 and losing 1 of their 6 there, scoring almost 2 a game and letting in under one. This is their first European game of the season, dropped straight in after finishing third in Belgium. Omonia should control the ball without doing much with it, and St. Truiden should get one. A 1-1 is the way this looks. The warning is what St. Truiden have served up in their league games so far. They have been wide open, a 3-3 at Cercle Brugge and a 1-1 with Lommel, and 6 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. That would beat us if this turns into an end to end night, but we still want the low-scoring one.

💬 Both back lines come into this patched up, and that is the main reason we are on goals. Rayo lose Luiz Felipe with a hamstring problem and D. Mendez with a knee injury. M. Kumbulla is doubtful with a muscle problem, so the middle of their defense is close to gone. They let in a goal a game with that back line fit, and now it has been pulled apart. Alaves have their own trouble, with F. Garces suspended and T. Mendes out with a knee injury. Their season has been busy at both ends. Alaves games produce more than 3 goals in total on average, and 10 of their last 16 had 3 or more goals in them. They opened with a 3-0 win over Getafe and they let in more than a goal a game themselves. This one is played at Butarque in Leganes, not at Rayo's own ground, so the hosts do not get their usual backing. A 1-1 is the way this looks, with both sides getting through a weakened defense. The honest warning is the history between these two. Their last 11 meetings averaged 2 goals in total, only two of them had 3 or more goals, and two of the last five finished 1-0. Rayo know how to make a game dull, but we still want both teams scoring.

💬 Benfica have been taking teams apart at their own ground, and that is why we are on goals here. They beat St. Gallen 5-0 and Hearts 6-1 in this qualifying run, then put seven past Casa Pia on 17 August. They score almost 3 goals a game and 14 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them. They also leave the back door open. Benfica let in a goal a game at their own ground and were tied 2-2 by Academico Viseu there on 9 August. Aarhus are not built to sit in a hole for 90 minutes either. They won 3-0 in Poznan this summer and they score more than a goal a game. 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are missing four players, including Fredrik Tingager, so keeping Benfica out for a full night looks beyond them. A 3-1 to Benfica is the way this looks, a clear first leg lead with Aarhus getting on the board to keep the return game alive. The risk is Benfica easing off. They played a full league game three days ago and have the second leg on 27 August. Changes are likely, and a comfortable lead can slow a game down. We still want the busy game.