Lech Poznan vs FC Thun — Tips & Analysis

Lech Poznan -0.75: Lech are far the better team here and they are in top form. The Polish champions have won 11 of their last 17 games and lost only one. They have won their last four in a row, including a 5-0 at KI Klaksvik, and they beat Aarhus 4-1 away in Europe last month. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in less than one. Thun are the opposite. They have lost 10 of their last 17 games and let in more than 2 goals a game. Their matches have more than 4 goals in them on average. The Swiss side lost 0-6 and 3-8 to Young Boys and 2-4 at Basel this year, so their back line falls open against good attacks. Lech should take control early at a full Stadion Poznan and stretch the lead after the break. Thun have scored on every European away trip this summer, so a 3-1 looks like the shape of it. That is a two goal home win, and it lands this pick. Two things could spoil it. Lech are without both first choice wingers, Ali Gholizadeh and Leo Bengtsson, which blunts the width they normally attack with. Their only defeat in 17 games was a 0-3 at home to Aarhus, so a flat European night is possible. We are still happy to back the champions to win this clearly.