Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom — Tips & Analysis

Egnatia Rrogozhinë +0.5: Egnatia are the better side at their own ground and their home games this summer have been wild. Their three home European ties finished 5-1 over Shamrock Rovers, 3-3 with Celje and 6-1 over Petrocub. They score almost 2 goals a game and their games have more than 3 goals in them on average, so they always carry a threat. The worry is at the other end. Egnatia have not kept a clean sheet in six European games and they let in more than a goal a game. Lillestrom are not the side to punish that. They have scored less than a goal a game across eight away trips. Their recent run includes a 0-2 to Rosenborg, a 0-4 at Bodo/Glimt and a 1-2 to Viking. Their last five games gave them one win, one tie and three defeats. Expect the Norwegians to sit deep and try to take the tie home level. That hands Egnatia the ball and the tempo for long spells. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that is a winning night for this pick. The risk is real. Lillestrom are organised enough to nick one and hold on. Egnatia's league record is built in a weak Albanian Superliga, so their level outside Europe is hard to read. We are still with the home side to be in front at the end.