Tips — Wednesday, 12 August 2026

💬 Como do not get beaten badly. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 19 games, and that is the strongest reason we are on them here. Arsenal have been quiet in front of goal too. They score just over a goal a game, and they have won by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 18. Como arrive in good shape. They have won 11 of their last 19, they score almost 2 goals a game, and their last five read WDWWW. Rest is on their side as well, with 12 days off against Arsenal's 3. Arsenal are also without both of their first choice centre backs. William Saliba is out with a back injury and Jurrien Timber is still short with an ankle problem. That patched up back line let in three at home to Borussia Dortmund on 9 August, a second straight pre season loss. Arsenal's better players should still win it late on, and a 2-1 to the home side looks the most likely finish. That kind of narrow Arsenal win is exactly what we want. The risk is the one every friendly carries. The Community Shield is four days away, so Arteta may make big changes at half time and send Rice, Saka and Raya back out. A fresh, full strength Arsenal could pull clear. We still think Como stay close.

💬 Both of these teams have been in busy, open games, and that is the strongest reason we are backing goals. Forest's games have produced 3 goals in total on average, and Leverkusen's just over 3. Forest score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. 7 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. Leverkusen have been the leakier side. They let in more than a goal a game, and 7 of their last 14 games also had 3 or more goals. They score almost 2 a game themselves, so they carry a threat of their own. The night helps too. A sold out City Ground gets its last look at Forest before the season starts, and Leverkusen are chasing a sixth win from six in pre season. Neither side has a reason to sit back. Friendlies also stretch late on as both benches empty and the shape goes. We read this as a 2-1 Forest win, three goals, which is the sort of night we want. The warning is real, though. Forest did not lose any of their home games across those 13, and they let in under a goal a game there. This could stay tight if they take control early. Leverkusen also play Newcastle on 15 August, so they may rest players and take the sting out of it. We are still on the busier game.

💬 Both teams come into this final short of their best attackers, and that is the strongest reason to expect a tight night. PSG have fitness doubts over Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Desire Doue and Achraf Hakimi. That is most of their speed in the final third. Villa are without Leon Bailey and Amadou Onana, and they are unsure about Ollie Watkins and Emiliano Martinez. Take the best forwards out of both sides and chances get harder to find. This is also the first competitive game of the season for both. PSG have not played for 74 days and Villa for 80, so touch and timing will be off early. It is a one off final on neutral ground in Salzburg, and neither team wants to lose it in the first 20 minutes. Both defenses have been steady too, letting in a goal a game each. A cagey 1-1 looks the most likely finish, and that is the sort of scoreline we are backing. The honest worry is that both of these sides can score plenty. PSG and Villa both score more than 2 goals a game, and their games have produced just over 3 goals on average. Their two meetings in April 2025 finished 3-1 to PSG and 3-2 to Villa. If either front line clicks early, this gets away from us. We still expect caution and rust to win out.

💬 Deportivo do not get taken apart. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 14 games, and that is the heart of this pick. They have been solid all round. They let in under a goal a game, and they have won 8 and lost only 2 of their last 14. They have won 4 of their last 5. Real Madrid are the better team, and nobody is arguing with that. Mourinho's side are unbeaten in pre season, with a 2-2 against Fiorentina and a 2-1 win at Ferencvaros. He has named almost the same group that won in Budapest. What Real have not been is ruthless. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 17 games. The old scorelines between these two look scary, but they are out of date. The last meeting was January 2018, when Deportivo were still a top flight club. This is a pre season trophy game with changes coming on both sides, and Deportivo will sit deep and stay compact. A 1-2 to Madrid feels like the right script, and that is just what we want. The risk is the gap in quality. If Mourinho leaves a strong side on for an hour, Real have the players to score three. We still think Deportivo are organised enough to keep this close.