Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg — Tips & Analysis

Pafos +0.5: Salzburg arrive with a thin squad and a habit of tight games, and that is what makes this pick work. Their last three games against proper opposition all finished with two goals or fewer: 1-1 at Wolfsberger, 1-0 against Pafos and 1-0 against Hartberg. They are also patched up. Enrique Aguilar broke a forearm in the first leg and needs surgery. Edmund Baidoo, Soumaila Diabate, Gaoussou Diakite and Damir Redzic all picked up knocks in the same game. Pafos are a different team at home. They have won 4 of 7 there and lost only once, scoring almost 2 goals a game, including a 4-0 win over Hajduk Split in this competition. On the road they have won just 2 of 9. All we want tonight is for Pafos to avoid defeat, and a tie is enough. Our read is a 1-1, which lands this comfortably. Salzburg are 1-0 up and can sit in to protect it. A visiting side in no hurry suits a home team who only need the game to stay level. The caution is that Pafos are missing forward Jaja and creator Domingos Quina, and Sema is suspended. That leaves them short of the players who unlock a packed defence. We are happy to back Pafos to hold their own here.