Universitatea Craiova vs KuPS — Tips & Analysis

KuPS +1.5: Craiova do not win by big margins, and this pick is built on that. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18 games. Their form has slipped as well, with a 0-1 home loss to Arges Pitesti on 9 August and a 1-5 beating at Dinamo Bucuresti. They are still a solid home side. They score more than a goal a game, let in less than one, and they have won 6 of 9 at the Ion Oblemenco. Solid is not the same as ruthless, and this tie is level at 1-1 from Finland. KuPS travel well. They have won 7 of 10 on the road this season and let in well under a goal a game away from home. Across their last 20 games they have lost by 2 or more just once. That is the number that matters most here. Our read is a 1-0 to Craiova, which keeps this pick safe. We need KuPS to lose by no more than one goal. The risk is the home version of Craiova turning up in full. At the Ion Oblemenco they score more than 2 goals a game, and a tiring KuPS side could get stretched late as the tie opens up. We are still with KuPS to keep this close.