Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Anderlecht's home games have been goal rushes. Their last five at Lotto Park produced 3, 4, 4, 4 and 4 goals, and 11 of their last 15 games in all have had 3 or more. They score more than a goal a game and let in almost 2, so they get into open games rather than closed ones. At their own ground they score more than 2 a game and still let in more than a goal. PAOK now have to change how they play. They lost the first game 1-0 at home, so keeping it tight is no longer any use to them. Their away football is usually careful, with just over a goal at each end, and that shape has to go. Anderlecht should have been out of sight already, because they made far more chances in Greece and won only 1-0. Our read is a 2-1 to Anderlecht, and that is the kind of night this leg wants. The worry is PAOK's own habit. Only 8 of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals in them. Anderlecht could also decide to protect what they have rather than chase a second goal. We think the pattern at Lotto Park wins out and the goals turn up.