Tips — Tuesday, 11 August 2026

💬 Kairat are hard to beat, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won 12 and lost only 4 of their last 19 games. They have not lost by 2 or more in any of those 19, so they stay in matches even on a bad night. They also let in under a goal a game. Levski have been the better team over the season so far. They have lost 1 of their last 16 games and let in under a goal a game themselves. On the road, though, they tie almost everything. Levski have 2 wins and 5 ties from their last seven away games, with no defeats. That is a side happy to keep it quiet and take a point. This is not a home game for Kairat. It was moved to the Turkestan Arena, so neither team gets its own ground or its own crowd. Kairat lost the first leg 0-1 in Sofia, so they have to come forward here, and Levski will let them. We see it finishing 1-1, and Kairat avoiding defeat is what we are backing. The risk is plain. Levski have already beaten Kairat once and they defend deep with real discipline. If Kairat pour men forward and get caught, one break can end it. We are still happy to take Kairat to stay unbeaten on the night.

💬 The six-goal first leg looks like the odd one out here, not the new normal. Bodo/Glimt have let in under a goal a game across their last 18, and they have lost only 1 of them. At Aspmyra they have won 8 of their last 10 and let in under a goal a game there too. That is not a defense that ships three most weeks. Union St. Gilloise are steady rather than wild. They have won 8 and lost 2 of their last 14 games. They score 2 goals a game and let in just over a goal a game, and 3 of their last 5 games were ties. The two meetings between these clubs have both finished level and averaged 3 goals a game. Both sides played league games 3 days ago, and tired teams tend to slow a match down rather than tear into it. Our read is a 2-1 Bodo/Glimt win. Three goals is the shape we expect, and it is a shape both of these teams produce often. The warning comes from Brussels. Union scored three there and put five past Westerlo in their last game. The two sides are level, so both have to chase the win, and a fast start could pull this away from us. We still want the tighter game tonight.

💬 Sabah have to win this one, and the state of the other team says they can. Aarhus are missing four players through injury. Defender Frederik Tingager is a further doubt after going off at 29 minutes in the first leg. Aarhus have also been giving up more chances than they create lately, so their 2-1 win in Denmark flattered them a little. Sabah have won 12 of their last 17 games and lost 3. At their own ground they have won 6 of their last 9 and let in under a goal a game. They have already knocked out The New Saints and KuPS on this run. Aarhus are stubborn, and that is what makes this closer than it looks. They have tied 8 of their last 16 games, including 4 of their 8 away games. They have lost by 2 or more only once in those 16. We see Sabah getting the win they need and taking it 2-1, with Aarhus grabbing one on the break. The honest risk sits right there. A tie is the most common Aarhus result, and this pick needs Sabah to win the game outright. Their run has also come against weaker teams than this one. We are still with Sabah to get it done at home.

💬 Dinamo Zagreb won the first leg 5-0 in Zagreb, so there is nothing left to play for here. Mario Kovačević is expected to change his team, with Oršić, Sučić and Kačavenda pushing for starts. That is the heart of the case for Kauno Žalgiris keeping this close. The Lithuanians have been hard to break down at home, letting in less than a goal a game across nine home games. They also rarely take a beating, going down by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 19. Dinamo are far the better side on paper. They have not lost in 15 games, they score almost 3 goals a game, and they won by 2 or more in 9 of those 15. The point is that they no longer need to do any of it. A changed side sitting on a five-goal lead usually plays at a stroll. Kauno have their own reasons to turn up, with coach Željko Sopić and Ivan Fiolić both facing their old club. A 1-1 is the likeliest way this ends, and that leaves Kauno comfortably inside the head start. There is real doubt here. A dead tie is the hardest kind of game to read, and Kauno have had three days' rest to Dinamo's seven. If Kovačević names a strong team, the gap can grow fast. We still want Kauno with the goals in hand.

💬 Two games between these clubs have produced two goals between them, and that is the best guide we have. The first leg in Piraeus finished 0-0, and nothing about the return suggests a different kind of night. Olympiakos are the main reason. They let in less than a goal a game and they score less than a goal a game. Only 3 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are happy to keep the ball, slow the game down and win it late. NEC are in no state to blow that open. They are without goalkeeper Freek Entius and Kodai Sano, further suspensions have been reported, and they come in on three days' rest to seven for the visitors. A team in that shape usually plays carefully and hopes to nick one. We see a 0-1, and a single goal keeps this well on the right side. The honest warning is that NEC's own games are busy. Their games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and they let in more than a goal a game. A sloppy start would change everything. If NEC fall behind they will throw bodies forward late, and goals at both ends are how these ties break open. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Crvena Zvezda lost the first leg 1-0 in Beer Sheva, so they need a two-goal win tonight just to finish the tie inside 90 minutes. A full Rajko Mitić will get a siege from the first whistle, and that is exactly the game this pick wants. Zvezda have the tools for it. They score more than 2 goals a game, and they have won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 14. They have not lost by that margin once. Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive weakened. Defender Matan Baltaxa is suspended after his red card in the first leg, and Kings Kangwa has left for Panathinaikos. They let in more than a goal a game and have lost 5 of their last 16. Sitting deep for 90 minutes is not a job they have done well. Here is the honest part. The single most likely score is 2-1, which is one goal short of what we need. But 11 of Zvezda's last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them, and a home side chasing two rarely stops at one. The risks are clear enough. Zvezda have had three days' rest to their opponents' seven, and Beer Sheva score almost 2 goals a game on the road, so one counter changes the maths. We are still with Zvezda to win this by a clear margin.

💬 The two teams want completely different games, and that is what makes goals likely. Celje trail 2-1 and must win by two to go through in 90 minutes, so they will pour men forward. Ararat-Armenia only need a tie, so they will drop deep and run at the space Celje leave behind. Celje are made for that kind of night in both directions. Their games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 8 of their last 13 finished with 3 or more. The last six weeks have brought 2-2 and 3-3 ties. Ararat are dangerous on the road too. They score more than 2 goals a game away from home and they let in more than a goal a game. They will not be pinned back for the full 90 minutes. Our read is a 2-1 Celje win, and three goals lands this on the right side. The warning is obvious. Ararat only have to keep it tight. If they defend the way they did in Yerevan, this can finish 1-0 or 1-1 with the goals never arriving. Celje have also tied 3 of their 8 home games, which is not the profile of a side who blow games open. We still want the goals here.

💬 Slovan Bratislava won the first leg 2-1 in Sweden with a late goal, and they come home in good shape to finish the job. They have won 10 of their last 14 games and they let in less than a goal a game. Mjällby could hardly arrive in worse condition. They are four games without a win, they were beaten 1-0 at home by Elfsborg on Saturday, and they are still without Timo Stavitski. They have also had three days' rest to Slovan's seven, which tells in the last half hour of a game like this. Mjällby have won 6, tied 6 and lost 5 of their last 17. That is a team who keep games close rather than win them, and they need to win this one. We see Slovan taking the lead and then controlling the night, with a 1-0 the most likely finish. A home win of any size does the job here. The one thing that worries us is Slovan's home record. They win far more easily on the road, and they score just over a goal a game at their own ground. They also lost 2-0 at home to Zemplín Michalovce in May. Mjällby have lost only one of their last eight away games and tied 5 of them, so they are hard to shake off. We still make Slovan the winners.

💬 Sturm Graz lost the first leg 2-0 in Istanbul, so they have to come out and play tonight, and that suits them. They have lost only 1 of their last 14 games. They are unbeaten in five at the Merkur-Arena, letting in less than a goal a game across those five. This is a good side who rarely get beaten, and they are the better team on the night here. Fenerbahçe are strong, no question. They have won 10 of their last 17 and they score more than 2 goals a game. But they hold a two-goal lead, and teams in that spot manage a game rather than force it. Changes to their team are a live possibility with the tie close to won. Milan Škriniar and Nathan Aké gave Sturm nothing in Istanbul, so this may well end level on the night. A 1-1 is our read, and a tie is enough for this pick. The worry is that Sturm have to chase two goals, and chasing leaves gaps for Talisca and Mason Greenwood to run into. Sturm are also on three days' rest to six, and they have not beaten Fenerbahçe in the last three meetings. We still like Sturm with a head start on a night they should not lose.

💬 Lyon have to come out and attack, and that is the heart of this pick. They lost the first leg 1-2 in Prague, so only a two-goal win takes them through inside 90 minutes. Expect them to push bodies forward from the first whistle. Lyon have had 7 days to get ready for it. Sparta have had 3, and they lost 2-0 at Mlada Boleslav in that game. Sparta also arrive without four senior players, including Roman Macek and Patrik Vydra. That is a heavy load for a side that will spend the night defending its own box. Sparta are no pushovers. They have won 10 of their last 15 games and score almost 2 goals a game, so they will carry a threat on the break. Lyon have the players to break a deep block down, and they have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between the clubs. Our read of the night is a 2-1 Lyon win, so we want one more goal than that. It is well within reach. Tired legs and missing men tend to give way late, and Lyon should have the ball for long spells. The doubt is a fair one. Lyon have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games, so a clear win is not their habit. We are with them to manage it tonight.