Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb — Tips & Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris +1.5: Dinamo Zagreb won the first leg 5-0 in Zagreb, so there is nothing left to play for here. Mario Kovačević is expected to change his team, with Oršić, Sučić and Kačavenda pushing for starts. That is the heart of the case for Kauno Žalgiris keeping this close. The Lithuanians have been hard to break down at home, letting in less than a goal a game across nine home games. They also rarely take a beating, going down by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 19. Dinamo are far the better side on paper. They have not lost in 15 games, they score almost 3 goals a game, and they won by 2 or more in 9 of those 15. The point is that they no longer need to do any of it. A changed side sitting on a five-goal lead usually plays at a stroll. Kauno have their own reasons to turn up, with coach Željko Sopić and Ivan Fiolić both facing their old club. A 1-1 is the likeliest way this ends, and that leaves Kauno comfortably inside the head start. There is real doubt here. A dead tie is the hardest kind of game to read, and Kauno have had three days' rest to Dinamo's seven. If Kovačević names a strong team, the gap can grow fast. We still want Kauno with the goals in hand.