Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe — Tips & Analysis

Sturm Graz +0.75: Sturm Graz lost the first leg 2-0 in Istanbul, so they have to come out and play tonight, and that suits them. They have lost only 1 of their last 14 games. They are unbeaten in five at the Merkur-Arena, letting in less than a goal a game across those five. This is a good side who rarely get beaten, and they are the better team on the night here. Fenerbahçe are strong, no question. They have won 10 of their last 17 and they score more than 2 goals a game. But they hold a two-goal lead, and teams in that spot manage a game rather than force it. Changes to their team are a live possibility with the tie close to won. Milan Škriniar and Nathan Aké gave Sturm nothing in Istanbul, so this may well end level on the night. A 1-1 is our read, and a tie is enough for this pick. The worry is that Sturm have to chase two goals, and chasing leaves gaps for Talisca and Mason Greenwood to run into. Sturm are also on three days' rest to six, and they have not beaten Fenerbahçe in the last three meetings. We still like Sturm with a head start on a night they should not lose.