FK Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Tips & Analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda -1.5: Crvena Zvezda lost the first leg 1-0 in Beer Sheva, so they need a two-goal win tonight just to finish the tie inside 90 minutes. A full Rajko Mitić will get a siege from the first whistle, and that is exactly the game this pick wants. Zvezda have the tools for it. They score more than 2 goals a game, and they have won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 14. They have not lost by that margin once. Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive weakened. Defender Matan Baltaxa is suspended after his red card in the first leg, and Kings Kangwa has left for Panathinaikos. They let in more than a goal a game and have lost 5 of their last 16. Sitting deep for 90 minutes is not a job they have done well. Here is the honest part. The single most likely score is 2-1, which is one goal short of what we need. But 11 of Zvezda's last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them, and a home side chasing two rarely stops at one. The risks are clear enough. Zvezda have had three days' rest to their opponents' seven, and Beer Sheva score almost 2 goals a game on the road, so one counter changes the maths. We are still with Zvezda to win this by a clear margin.