Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: The six-goal first leg looks like the odd one out here, not the new normal. Bodo/Glimt have let in under a goal a game across their last 18, and they have lost only 1 of them. At Aspmyra they have won 8 of their last 10 and let in under a goal a game there too. That is not a defense that ships three most weeks. Union St. Gilloise are steady rather than wild. They have won 8 and lost 2 of their last 14 games. They score 2 goals a game and let in just over a goal a game, and 3 of their last 5 games were ties. The two meetings between these clubs have both finished level and averaged 3 goals a game. Both sides played league games 3 days ago, and tired teams tend to slow a match down rather than tear into it. Our read is a 2-1 Bodo/Glimt win. Three goals is the shape we expect, and it is a shape both of these teams produce often. The warning comes from Brussels. Union scored three there and put five past Westerlo in their last game. The two sides are level, so both have to chase the win, and a fast start could pull this away from us. We still want the tighter game tonight.