Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan — Tips & Analysis

Lech Poznan +1.5: This one is about margins, and both sides point the same way. Palace have won by two or more in just 3 of their last 16 games. Lech have been beaten by two or more once in their last 18. Big wins are not what either team produces. Palace are also short up front. Mateta is four games into a hamstring problem, Nketiah is doubtful and Sarr is only just back. A side that scores just over a goal a game and lets in almost 2 is not built to run away with a European night. They have been creating little and giving up plenty lately. Lech are the better organised team here. They have lost only 2 of their last 18 games and they let in under a goal a game. They sit in a tight shape, protect the middle and make you play around them. Their away scoring is flattered by a 5-0 at KI Klaksvik and a 2-2 at Thun, so this is not about Lech winning. It is about them staying close, and they nearly always do. A 1-1 looks the likeliest score, and that suits us. The risk is the occasion. A European night at Selhurst Park can lift a home side above its league form. Some of the missing Palace names are squad paperwork rather than injuries. We still think Lech keep this close.