China W vs Philippines W — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: The Philippines have to win this game. Both teams have four points, and China lead the group on goal difference, so a tie is enough for China to finish top. A team that must win cannot sit back, and that is why goals look likely. China are the stronger side. They have won 6 of their last 10, score more than 2 goals a game and put five past Hong Kong in their opening group game. Wang Shuang has already scored twice in this tournament. The Philippines can play too. They have won 7 of their last 13, score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. Both teams bring busy games with them. China's games have averaged just over 3 goals and the Philippines' have averaged 3 goals. This is played on neutral ground in Japan, so neither side is at home, and both have had four days off. The most likely single score is a 2-1 China win, and this wants a busier night than that. With the Philippines forced to chase and China happy to keep going, that is a fair ask. Two things could spoil it. China can also control a game and shut it down, as they did in their 0-0 with Japan. Both sides are close to the knockout rounds, so either could rest players. We still want the busy game.