Barracas Central vs Independ. Rivadavia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2: Barracas Central have almost stopped scoring, and that is the heart of this pick. They score under a goal a game, and their last three league games finished 1-1, 0-0 and 0-0. There is more than just that run. 14 of their last 20 games had fewer than 3 goals, and they have gone seven games without a win. A team in that state does not chase games. They sit deep, protect their own box and are happy with a night of nothing. Independiente Rivadavia are clearly the better team. They finished 13 points clear of Barracas in the Apertura table. They are a different side away from Mendoza. On the road they score just over a goal a game, winning three, tying four and losing three. So the shape of this one is easy to see. Rivadavia will have the ball, Barracas will defend deep, and one goal should be enough to decide it. A 1-0 away win is the most likely single score, and a night like that lands this pick. The warning is real. Rivadavia have been creating plenty of chances lately, and 10 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals. If they take those chances early, this gets away from us. We still want the quiet game.