Cagliari vs Lecce — Tips & Analysis

Cagliari -0.25: Neither of these teams scores much, and that suits a narrow home win. Cagliari get under a goal a game, Lecce the same, and Lecce manage only 1 goal a game across nine away games. One goal is likely to decide this. Cagliari have won 6 of their last 16 and put three straight wins together. They then lost 1-0 to Inter and went out of the cup at home to Verona. They have already won 1-0 at Parma this season, so they know how to grind out this kind of result. Lecce arrive without Willem Geubbels, their main summer signing, after he hurt his ankle against Roma. An untested replacement comes in for him. Lecce have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15, so they can fold once they go behind. Expect a cautious night with plenty of nothing and few clear chances. A 1-0 Cagliari win looks the most likely result, and that lands this pick. The worry is how often these two share the points. Cagliari have tied 5 of the last 12 meetings, so we need the hosts to actually win this one. Yerry Mina is a doubt with a calf problem, and Cagliari come in on 4 days rest to Lecce's 7. We still make the hosts the side to be on.