FC Porto vs Moreirense — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Porto win these games without needing many goals. They have won five in a row, by 3-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 1-0, and they did not let in a single goal across that run. At the Dragao they have won 8 and tied 3 of their 11 home games, with no losses. They score more than a goal a game there and have gone six games in a row without letting one in. Pepe and Zaidu Sanusi are missing, but that back line has been shut tight anyway. Moreirense do not look like the side to open it up. They score less than a goal a game and have managed 4 goals in their last 7 away trips. Their road record reads 1 win, 2 ties and 4 losses. A team that cannot score tends to sit deep and try to survive, which keeps the game slow. Porto's own numbers agree. Only 7 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. A 2-0 to Porto is the likely finish, and two goals clears this bet with room. The worry is the history between them. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and Porto have beaten Moreirense 3-0 and 3-1 in that run. If Porto get an early second and keep going, this can slip away. We still want the quiet game.