Sevilla vs Osasuna — Tips & Analysis

Osasuna +0.75: Sevilla do not win games by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 12. At home they have won just 2 of 5 and score a goal a game. Sevilla have also created very little over their last four games. For a side that should be bossing this one, that is a problem. Osasuna are a mess on the road, but they come in off a win and they have taken something from this game before. In the last 20 meetings they have beaten Sevilla 6 times, with 5 ties. This one is nearly always close. The last five meetings produced 3, 1, 1, 2 and 2 goals, and those 20 meetings averaged well under 3 goals a game. Both teams have had 8 days' rest. A 2-1 Sevilla win is the most likely single result. That is a one-goal home win, which is not enough for us, so we need Osasuna to take at least a point here. Here is the honest worry. Osasuna have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and let in more than 3 goals a game on the road. They are also missing Oroz, Del Castillo, Herrando and Bonel. We still back them to keep this tight against a Sevilla side that cannot put teams away.