Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.25: Goals follow these two around. The last five meetings between them produced 3, 5, 5, 4 and 3 goals. PSG's own last five games have gone 6, 4, 6, 4 and 3. PSG have won five in a row and score more than 2 goals a game. 12 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are not solid at the back either, letting in more than a goal a game. Lyon do not shut games down. 10 of their last 14 games also had 3 or more goals, and they score almost 2 goals a game. They are more careful away from home, where they score about a goal a game. Both teams are patched up. PSG are missing Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes, so the attack is rebuilt and the back line is makeshift. Lyon are without Openda and Ouedraogo. A thrown-together PSG defence helps our case. A 2-1 PSG win is the most likely single result, and that leaves us one goal short. So we need a fourth goal. In a game whose last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, that is a fair ask. Two warnings. Lyon's games have landed on exactly 3 total goals in 7 of their last 14, and that is the result that hurts us most. PSG's replacement front line is also new and unproven. We still want the busier game.